Penn State vs. Indiana NCAAF Week 10 Pick and Prediction: Nittany Lions Trying to Remain Relevant

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Zakee Wheatley #6 of the Penn State Nittany Lions celebrates with Kalen King #4 after a play against the Minnesota Golden Gophers. Scott Taetsch/Getty Images/AFP.

Penn State dropped its second game of the year last week against Ohio State and is trying to remain relevant for a chance at a major bowl. A win over Big Ten rival Indiana would keep them in that conversation.

Let’s check out the college football odds and analyze this matchup as we continue to cash our college football picks!

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Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Indiana Hoosiers

Saturday, November 5, 2022 – 03:30 PM EDT at Memorial Stadium

If Penn State had any hopes of hanging around the CFP discussion, they were dashed last week when they fell, 44-31, to powerhouse Ohio State. Now, the Nittany Lions check into this Big Ten showdown on Indiana soil with a 6-2 mark and are looking to run the table starting on Saturday against the Hoosiers with Maryland, Rutgers, and Michigan State laying in wait.

The oddsmakers installed Penn State as 15.5 home dogs and it looked like the Lions were ready to pull an upset after leading the Buckeyes, 14-13, at the half. However, it was all Ohio State from thereon as a pick-six with a little over 2 minutes left in the game all but iced the game at 44-24.

Yet, the Lions were not ready to surrender as Sean Clifford found Kaytron Allen for a 5-yard touchdown pass which had little effect on the game but was critical in covering for those who put their money on the home dog. Ohio State’s 13-point margin of victory gave Penn State the ATS cover and they are now 5-3 against the number this season.

Hoosiers Drop 5 Straight

Rutgers was determined to snap their 21-game home losing streak to Big Ten entries, a losing skein that dated back to 2017, and Indiana was the elixir they needed. The Scarlet Knights rallied for a 24-17 win over Indiana and broke the curse of the longest Big Ten home losing streak in the conference’s history.

Perhaps what made this loss even worse for Indiana is that they leaped to a 14-0 lead before watching it evaporate with 4 unanswered scores by Rutgers. No team wanted to be the one to lose to Rutgers in Piscataway, especially when holding a double-digit advantage.

A meaningless 39-yard field goal with under 2 minutes remaining did nothing to change the outcome nor give Indiana backers any solace as they failed to cover as 3-point road dogs in this one. Hoosier’s quarterback, Connor Bazelak, had 210 yards passing with no touchdowns and one interception while Indiana’s ground game was stuck in neutral with just 62 rushing yards.

Total Trends

  • Under is 6-1 in Penn State’s last 7 games following a straight-up loss.
  • Under is 10-2 in Penn State’s last 12 vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Under is 5-1 in Penn State’s last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
  • Under is 4-1 in Indiana’s last 5 conference games.

Penn State vs. Indiana: Game Prediction

An interesting tidbit concerning Indiana this season refers to the Hoosiers being installed as favorites in their first 3 games of the season and winning all of those contests, including their 23-20 victory over Illinois in their season debut in which they were tagged as one-point home chalk.

We should note they failed to cover as 24.5 and 7-point favorites in their subsequent victories over Idaho and Wake Forest, respectively.

But the interesting part is that in their 5 games since, they have been installed as underdogs and have lost each and every one of those games, going 2-3 ATS in the process.

In other words, Indiana has yet to rise to the occasion when met by a greater adversary this season and is currently on a 5-game-losing streak with another formidable foe in the offing this Saturday.

Therefore, no one is expecting an upset on Saturday, but just how many points do we need to justify a wager on this lackluster Hoosier edition? Last year, Penn State was installed as 12-point home favorites over Indiana and drew away to a 24-0 victory at Happy Valley.

Penn State Not Good Enough to Cover

We know the line will be heavier this time around and after reviewing the college football odds at the best sportsbooks we see that Penn State is a 14-point road favorite.

The issue at hand is that Penn State, although a good team, has been exposed as a few clicks below the elite while Indiana is perhaps a click below mediocre. But Indiana has had 2 weeks to dwell on that humiliating loss and lick their wounds on their bye week while Penn State was getting battered by the Buckeyes.

This could be a letdown spot for the Lions after losing to Ohio State while the Hoosiers will be well-rested and, one would think, be ready to atone for their loss to Rutgers with a gritty effort against a Big Ten power.

Final Picks

Indiana is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week and while I believe the Nittany Lions will come away with a victory, I also feel that the Hoosiers will be able to hang around just enough to keep this one within the margins in what should be a relatively low-scoring game.

Score Prediction: Penn State 28 - Indiana 16

NCAAF Pick: Indiana +14 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Indiana +14 (-108)
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NCAAF Pick: Under 50.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Under 50.5 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.