Don’t be fooled by the No. 7 Oregon Ducks. It’s the Washington Huskies who need a home in your Week 10 college football picks.
Oregon Ducks vs. Washington Huskies
Saturday, November 06, 2021 – 07:30 PM EDT at Husky Stadium
There’s only one alpha team in the Pac-12 this year, and it’s the No. 7 Oregon Ducks (7-1 SU, 2-6 ATS). But as you can tell by that ATS record, something’s not quite right in Eugene. The advanced stats reveal all: Football Outsiders have Oregon ranked No. 26 overall (No. 25 offense, No. 33 defense) on their F+ efficiency charts, behind the Arizona State Sun Devils at No. 21.
That’s why we’re recommending the Washington Huskies (4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS) for Saturday’s college football picks. The Huskies obviously have their own flaws; they’re No. 48 (No. 69 offense, No. 31 defense) on the efficiency charts, with the same awful ATS record as Oregon. That’s okay, though, because the Ducks are laying 6.5 points on the NCAAF odds board at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)as we go to press – and they’re playing in Seattle, where it’s now officially monsoon season.
Given how overrated the Ducks are, we certainly expect to see the projections working in our favor, and they do. Jeff Sagarin at The USA Today has Oregon winning by 5.83 points, which warrants a slight lean towards the Huskies. Meanwhile, Nate Silver’s crew at FiveThirtyEight very quietly put up their first predictions for the top-ranked college football teams about a month ago; they peg Oregon’s chances of victory this Saturday at 66 percent, while ESPN’s Football Power Index chimes in at 62.8 percent.
Let’s plug those percentages into the nutritious BMR Odds Converter and see what happens:
The Huskies are +205 underdogs on the college football lines at the top-rated sportsbooks, so yes, they’re still the right choice as far as the quants are concerned. But how big should your bet size be? We tend to prefer FiveThirtyEight’s projections here at the home office, so we’re inclined to stick with that slight lean and make it one unit. Give me a ping, Vasiliy. One ping only, please.
Rain Makes the Grass Grow
Option B is to run with the Under. That was the right choice in four of the last five games these teams have played in Seattle, and again, it’s monsoon season in the Pacific Northwest. Okay, it’s only light showers for the most part – people always over-dramatize how wet it gets in the temperate rainforests of Cascadia. But the field at Husky Stadium should be plenty soggy after six consecutive days of liquid sunshine.
The Huskies can do their part by adding to their 7-1 under record. Sadly, the Ducks have split their totals at 4-4 despite their surprisingly anemic offense, but things have definitely gotten worse with all the recent injuries they’ve suffered on the offensive line. Sagarin projects a combined score of 46.93 points for this contest, and there’s a 51-point total on the board at YouWager; let’s make it the classic underdog-Under parlay, just for funsies, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.
NCAAF Pick: Washington +6.5 (–108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.