Oregon State vs. Oregon College Football Week 13 Picks and Odds Breakdown

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Quarterback Anthony Brown #13 of the Oregon Ducks. Steph Chambers/Getty Images/AFP

With the CFP out of reach, the Oregon Ducks are the wrong choice for your NCAAF picks when they host the OSU Beavers this Saturday. 

Oregon State Beavers vs. Oregon Ducks 

Saturday, November 27, 2021 – 03:30 PM EST at Autzen Stadium

Honestly, there was no way the Oregon Ducks belonged in the College Football Playoff – other than being a member of a Power 5 conference. But it’s all moot now; the Ducks (9-2 SU, 4-7 ATS) lost 38-7 to the Utah Utes last week as 3.5-point road dogs on the NCAAF odds board at the best online sportsbooks, a result that will surely take them out of the CFP picture. 

That’s a bitter pill for the Ducks to swallow heading into this Saturday’s matchup – don’t call it the Civil War – with their Willamette Valley rivals, the Oregon State Beavers (7-4 SU and ATS).

If it weren’t for Oregon’s playoff demise, we might be tempted to recommend the Ducks for your Week 13 college football picks, but this is a letdown game par excellence, and we’re taking the other side instead now that they’ve opened as 7-point road dogs at Heritage Sports.  

Trojan Man 

We’ll be going against the projections this time, which is definitely rare here at the home office – but this is a rare situation. Not only did Oregon watch their National Championship hopes to crumble, but they might also lose their head coach. Mario Cristobal is reportedly one of the top candidates for the open positions at both LSU and USC. Cristobal has been in Eugene since 2017, taking over the top job the following year and leading Oregon to two Pac-12 titles and a win at the Rose Bowl. 

Ah yes, the Pac-12. The Ducks may have been No. 3 in the CFP rankings heading into Week 12, but they were No. 13 on the F+ efficiency charts at Football Outsiders, a disconnect between perception and reality that largely explains their unprofitable ATS record.

Meanwhile, the Beavers were ways down the F+ list at No. 57 overall before they beat the Arizona State Sun Devils 24-10 as 3-point home dogs; that was the same price OSU had in Week 8 when they upset Utah 42-34. 

Senior Moments 

The consensus reports at press time show 67 percent of early bettors on Oregon State, so we’re not the only ones who think this is a bad spot for the Ducks. This should still be a small bet, though, given that it’s the last game of the regular season – Senior Week in Eugene – and one of the oldest rivalry games in college football betting. 
 
One other thing: The Ducks can clinch the North Division and a berth in the Pac-12 Championship Game, against those very same Utes, with a win over Oregon State. So at least they will have some motivation to give it the old college try this Saturday. Bet accordingly, and may the prolate spheroid be with you. 

NCAAF Pick: Oregon State +7 (–108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.