Oregon vs. Colorado NCAAF Week 10 Top Picks: Ducks Flying High

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Noah Whittington #22 and Kris Hutson #1 of the Oregon Ducks celebrate after Whittington scored a touchdown against the California Golden Bears. Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images/AFP.

Oregon is back on the map and No. 8 in the nation after winning their seventh consecutive game entering this Pac-12 showdown with Colorado.

Let’s review the college football odds and break down this matchup as we look to continue to cash our college football picks!

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Oregon Ducks vs. Colorado Buffaloes

Saturday, November 5, 2022 – 03:30 PM EDT at Folsom Field

The Ducks have been perfect after they took a 49-3 beating from Georgia in their season debut. Since that time, they have won seven consecutive games and are 6-1 against the spread in those contests.

Quarterback Bo Nix has been the straw that stirs the drink in Eugene, racking up 2,221 passing yards with 20 touchdown passes to only five interceptions and connecting on 72.3% of his passes. And if that wasn’t enough, Nix has a whopping 11 rushing touchdowns and 441 yards on a 7.3 yards per carry average.

Last Saturday, Nix was at it again, with three passing and three rushing touchdowns and 412 yards through the air, but had two uncharacteristic interceptions in Oregon’s 42-24 victory over California. Nix spread the ball around, hitting 11 different receivers while avoiding getting sacked throughout the afternoon.

Buffaloes Burned by Sun Devils

Colorado is in the midst of a shame spiral, waiting for the merciful end of what has become an abysmal season. The Buffaloes are 1-7 straight up and a money-burning 2-6 against the all-important number.

And although they dropped another game last week, this time a 42-34 decision to Arizona State, they at least showed some grit down the stretch by scoring the last two touchdowns of the game and getting the second cover of the season for those brave enough to back them.

J.T. Shrout had 222 passing yards with two touchdowns and one pick but was an underwhelming 13-of-34 through the air. Deion Smith led all Colorado rushers with 111 of the 137 total rushing yards. However, the Buffaloes' defense was invisible, allowing 435 passing yards and 122 on the ground for a total of 557 combined yards.

Colorado interim head coach Mike Sanford spoke about the fans heading for the exits after Arizona State moved to a 42-20 lead early in the fourth quarter. "You think about the scoreline being 42-20. What's happened throughout the course of the year when the scoreline looks like that? That's why a lot of people left. But I'm going to tell those people that left that this team's going to fight to the very end and there will be a breakthrough. I believe that."

Teams Trends

  • Ducks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
  • Ducks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
  • Ducks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight-up win.
  • Ducks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
  • Buffaloes are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Buffaloes are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Total Trends

  • Over is 6-1 in the Ducks’ last 7 games overall.
  • Over is 5-1 in the Ducks’ last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
  • Over is 5-1 in the Ducks’ last 6 games following a straight-up win.
  • Over is 6-1 in the Buffaloes’ last 7 games overall.
  • Over is 5-1 in the Buffaloes’ last 6 games following a straight-up loss.
  • Over is 4-1 in the Buffaloes’ last 5 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.

Oregon vs. Colorado: Pick and Prediction

Welcome to Squaresville because I can’t make an argument for the Buffaloes despite them getting a 31 ½ point head start at home as per top-rated sportsbooks. Oregon is ranked 23rd in passing, 9th in rushing, 5th in points scored averaging 42.4 points per game, 3rd in total yards, and 1st in offensive turnovers.

Considering how prolific the Ducks' offense has been, consider their opponent’s defensive rankings. The Buffaloes are ranked 87th against the pass, 120th in defensive takeaways, 129th in total points and yards allowed, and 131st in rushing yards allowed.

The only way the Buffaloes stay within the margins is if the Ducks get bored or the first-stringers get pulled and Colorado gets a backdoor cover as they did last week against the Sun Devils. I don’t think that will happen as national rankings are not only about winning, but the margin of victory.

As for the total, the Ducks will ring up whatever number they wish until their legs fall off. My only apprehension is whether or not Colorado can put enough points on the board to make this one go over the posted total. I think they will which is why I am advising a play on Oregon and over in this one.

Score Prediction: Oregon 54 - Colorado 13

NCAAF Pick: Oregon -31 ½ (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

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Oregon -31 ½ (-110)
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NCAAF Pick: Over 61 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Over 61 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.