Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State: NCAAF Week 9 Betting Preview

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Spencer Sanders #3 of the Oklahoma State Cowboys throws against the TCU Horned Frogs. Ron Jenkins/Getty Images/AFP.

Kansas State has one of the best rushing offenses in the Big 12, and the Wildcats will need to live up to that hype at home this weekend.

They will face off against Oklahoma State, one of the best passing offenses in the conference.

These two teams will play diametrically opposed styles, but both have been effective.

The Wildcats have pulled off many upsets this year, and the Cowboys control their own destiny despite a loss early in the season.

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Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Kansas State Wildcats

Saturday, October 29, 2022 – 03:30 PM EDT at Bill Snyder Family Stadium

With so much happening, this game could go either way. That’s why the spread is so slim.

Right now, the line is wavering between a pick ‘em and Oklahoma State being favored by one point.

What can we expect from these two teams in the Big 12? Which style of play will prevail?

Let’s break down some key details in this game before making our NCAAF picks for this intriguing matchup.


Kansas State’s Rushing Offense

The Wildcats may not score as many points per game, but they know how to hold onto the ball with a stable rushing attack. It starts with Deuce Vaughn, who averages 5.9 yards per carry this season. He doesn’t always find the end zone, but he is explosive enough to move the chains consistently.

He pairs well with quarterback Adrian Martinez, a quarterback capable of running the ball all by himself.

Martinez was seen as a project when he transferred from Nebraska, but his dynamic ability this season has kept Kansas State in practically every game. It adds a facet to the offense that overstretches opposing defenses.

However, the passing offense is not as electric. With no interceptions by Martinez, he at least remains efficient. Still, averaging less than 150 passing yards per game is not enough for Martinez to take over through the air.


Oklahoma State’s Passing Attack

Spencer Sanders has played for four seasons with the Cowboys. Despite losing so many weapons over the last two seasons, Sanders is becoming more efficient in his senior year.

He already has 15 passing touchdowns with only 4 picks, which is more than enough to keep this offense rolling.

Sanders has also improved as a mobile threat over the past two years. The expectations were low in that regard, but he is making plays consistently with his legs this season.

That wrinkle in the offense is part of the reason why Oklahoma State has a chance to win the conference.


Keys for Each Team to Cover

Right now, things are pretty simple for the Wildcats. You have to extend drives and hold onto the ball with a solid rushing attack. This includes starting things off with early scores to keep things rolling; it also means you can’t have a large deficit. This team isn’t made to come back with quick scores, so a balanced game is the way to go.

For Oklahoma State, you need to keep Martinez in the pocket. If you can force him to throw the ball when things break down, you’ll be in a position to force mistakes.

For both teams, turnovers will be massive. Neither team has a tendency to turn the ball over, so any mistakes must be capitalized on by the opponent.

This should be a fun game, but what can we expect in terms of betting picks? Here are our picks for the spread and total line for this Big 12 matchup.


The Pick

This is a close spread, so you have to look at things like the time of the game and home-field advantage. Kansas State is going to play host, but this is not a night game. That means the crowd can only impact the game so much.

I wouldn’t like Oklahoma State with a significant spread, but I like them as a pick ‘em. This team is more balanced and explosive, and I believe Martinez will not be able to keep up with Sanders through the air.

In terms of the points, I expect the under to hit simply because the line is so high. Kansas State will be trying to run the ball for most of this game, and the defense is strong enough to get some key stops.

I don’t expect either team to be too explosive, and I find it more likely that at least one of these teams struggles to keep up.

NCAAF Pick: Under 58 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Under 58 (-108)
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NCAAF Pick: Oklahoma State PK (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

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Oklahoma State PK (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.