Oklahoma State vs. Kansas NCAAF Week 10 Best Bets: The Squares Get Their Day

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Wide receiver Bryson Green #9 of the Oklahoma State Cowboys celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Texas Longhorns. Brian Bahr/Getty Images/AFP.

Soggy conditions make the Under the right NCAAF pick for Saturday’s Oklahoma State-Kansas matchup. What other bets are worth pursuing at the best sportsbooks?

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Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Kansas Jayhawks

Saturday, November 5, 2022 – 03:30 PM EDT at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium

You wouldn’t normally want to put the Under in your college football picks when the Oklahoma State Cowboys (Over 6-2) meet the Kansas Jayhawks (Over 5-3). But Saturday isn’t your normal Big 12 shootout, and the total is just too damn high at 65 points on the NCAAF odds board at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review).

We’ll get to that in a moment. As for the spread, the models we’re looking at suggest Oklahoma State is properly priced as 2-point road faves at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review). And we’re not seeing any value at -125 on the moneyline, either. Looks like we’ll have to dip into the NCAAF props market if we’re going to recommend a second wager for this game.

Why the Under This Time?

As you probably know by now, the Under has a built-in advantage when it comes to betting on college football or any other sport, for that matter. Casual fans bet the Over because they want to see some offense. We’re here to take their money.

The Under has even more legs when you’ve got 2 teams who can’t deliver on offense and more still when those teams are really good at defense. Sadly, neither the Cowboys nor the Jayhawks fit the bill here.

Let’s take a look at the latest F+ ratings at Football Outsiders for proof:

  • Oklahoma State: No. 22 overall (No. 19 offense, No. 45 defense)
  • Kansas: No. 52 overall (No. 21 offense, No. 98 defense)

Definitely not what the doctor ordered. And if that weren’t enough, the mid-week consensus reports show 97% of bettors on the Over at press time. Ah, but take a closer look at the line history for this contest, and you’ll see that the total plunged from 69.5 points to 65 in early betting. That’s a strong indicator of very early sharp action on the Under.

We’ve also got some rain in the forecast for Saturday. It might clear up just before kick-off, but this will be after a very soggy Friday, so there’s a good chance the field conditions in Lawrence will be slippery enough for our purposes.

Obviously, it would have been nicer to grab the Under at 69.5 points, but even at 65, the models we’re looking at suggest a proper one-unit bet is still worth it. Thank you, drive-through.

Can We Have Another Bet Please?

Well, since you asked so nicely, yes. Given our Under bet and the weather forecast, this would probably be a good spot to take the Under on the usual suspects, like how many touchdown throws Oklahoma State QB Spencer Sanders and Kansas QB Jalon Daniels will deliver.

Unfortunately, as I write this, it’s still a bit early for those college football player props to hit the board. We do have tons of score props and game props, though, plus an added wrinkle at Bovada: squares.

I don’t mean the pejorative term for recreational bettors. These are the same squares you might crank out for your Super Bowl party; simply choose which number will show up in the “ones” column for each team’s final score, then get paid accordingly if you choose the right combo. This should be fun.

Is There Any Betting Value With Squares?

To be honest, we have no idea. We don’t have the kind of analytic modeling power here at the home office to tell us what the potential profit margin would be for each of the options on the NCAAF prop board.

But we can use some logic. If the Cowboys are favored by 2 points, and the total is 65, then we’re probably looking at a final score somewhere around Oklahoma State 34 - Kansas 32. We can’t make this add up to 65 without decimals since there’s a 2-point spread involved.

Not that it matters, because the next step is to take that 34-32 estimate and bend it toward something a bit more likely. Scoring in football usually happens in chunks of 3 and 7, so anytime you model a certain final score, you need to tweak the results to account for that.

Final Picks

We’re cheating a bit here by using the NFL Scorigami website (college football has weird overtime rules and stuff), but this is only a fun-size bet anyway, and NFL scoring is close enough for government work.

The most common score in this neighborhood, by a fair margin, is 34-31, so let’s ride with the 4-1 square, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

NCAAF Pick: Under 65 (-110) at Bookmaker

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Under 65 (-110)
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NCAAF Prop Pick: Squares - Oklahoma State 4 - Kansas 1 (+4000) at Bovada

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Squares - Oklahoma State 4 - Kansas 1 (+4000)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.