Ohio State vs. Maryland NCAAF Top Picks: Trap Game Galore for Buckeyes

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Miyan Williams #3 of the Ohio State Buckeyes runs with the ball against the Indiana Hoosiers. Ben Jackson/Getty Images/AFP.

It could be a massive trap game for No. 2 Ohio State on Saturday as the Buckeyes visit Maryland in Big Ten action.

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Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Maryland Terrapins 

Saturday, November 19, 2022 – 03:30 PM EST at SECU Stadium 

ABC has this Big Ten matchup. Ohio State controls its destiny to reach the Big Ten title game and the College Football Playoff, while a Maryland upset would likely improve the Terps’ bowl slot. 

Last Time They Met

Last season, Ohio State slaughtered Maryland 66-17. CJ Stroud, currently the +120 favorite to win the Heisman Trophy at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review), threw for 406 yards and 5 scores. He might lock up the Heisman if he puts up similar numbers here.

Chris Olave caught 7 passes for 120 yards and 2 TDs but is now an Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate with the New Orleans Saints.

TreVeyon Henderson rushed 16 times for 102 yards and 2 scores. He also caught a 26-yard TD pass. OSU was 2 yards shy of 600 and scored 9 straight possessions.

Maryland QB Taulia Tagovailoa threw for 279 yards and 2 scores, but also 2 picks.  

The home team is 4-0 against the spread on NCAAF picks in the past 4 meetings. The Over has hit in 7 straight. 

Ohio State Looking Ahead? 

I don’t really want to just give away my pick now, but this is the absolute definition of a trap game for Ohio State, as the Buckeyes likely will be looking ahead to hosting No. 3 Michigan on Nov. 26 for the Big Ten East Division title. I know, I can’t freaking wait for that one! 

Magnific Stroud

The Buckeyes had little trouble this past Saturday in dispatching Indiana 56-14, covering a 39-point spread at the best sportsbooks. CJ Stroud was terrific, completing 17 of 28 for 297 yards and 5 scores.

He was named Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week for the 5th time this season. Stroud ranks in the top 5 nationally in 5 different categories and is the nation’s leader in 2: pass efficiency (188.2) and touchdowns (34). He’s 2nd in yards per attempt (9.92), 3rd in passes of 30-plus yards (21), and 5th in yards per completion (14.78).  

Stroud became the first quarterback in the history of the Big Ten to have consecutive seasons of at least 30 touchdown passes and shot past the 7,000-yard career passing mark, only the 4th Buckeye to reach that mark (Bobby Hoying, Art Schlichter, J.T. Barrett). 

Offensive Hasn't Missed Henderson

The Buckeyes finished with 662 yards of total offense, which included 340 on the ground. It was the most yards the Buckeyes gained on the ground since rushing for 399 against Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship Game in 2020.  

They did it without star running back TreVeyon Henderson as he missed the 3rd game this year due to an injury. Too early to know if he will play this week, although my guess is that OSU wants to make sure he’s healthy for Michigan.

Both Miyan Williams (147 yards) and Dallan Hayden (102) had 100-yard games on the ground, but Williams went down awkwardly on his right ankle and had to be helped to a cart and taken to the locker room with 2:17 left in the first half.  

Ohio State coach Ryan Day said Williams' injury didn't immediately appear to be "something that was going to be long-term," adding that it's possible Henderson could be back for Maryland.

This is the 10th consecutive season with at least 10 wins for Ohio State, excluding the 2020 pandemic campaign. OSU is a +240 2nd favorite at the best sportsbooks to win the national title.  

Maryland Good in Third Quarters 

Maryland (6-4) lost 30-0 at Penn State on Saturday; 3 of the Terps’ 4 losses are on the road.

Tough Game for Tagovailoa Last Week

Taulia Tagovailoa, the younger brother of Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa, had a rough day as he was just 11-for-22 for 74 yards. Penn State sacked Tagovailoa 7 times and had 7 QB hurries, forced 9 punts, and 3 turnovers on downs.  

Tagovailoa did surpass the 7,000-career passing yards plateau as he has 7,023. He is 2nd in school history with 595 in passing yards and passing touchdowns with 47. He stands 56 completions, 279 yards, and 3 touchdowns from setting the program records in those categories. He is already the career record-holder in total offense.

Roman Hemby ran for 68 yards to give him more than 1,000 total yards of offense this season. The freshman has 815 rushing yards and 239 receiving yards on the year. 

What to Expect This Week

Perhaps, consider a third-quarter wager on Maryland here, as it held Penn State to only 3 points in the third and has outscored opponents 54-16 in the quarter this season. Maryland has allowed the second-fewest points in the third quarter in the country. Only Michigan (9) has allowed fewer. The Terps also have third-quarter shutouts in 6 of 10 third quarters. 

“Now is not the time for us to panic. We still got two games left, we’re still in a great situation. But it is time to take a hard look inside to make sure that we’re playing the right guys, we’re doing the right things in all three phases, and get it fixed to get us back on the right track," Maryland coach Mike Locksley said Saturday after the loss, Maryland's 3rd in 4 games. 

Some have called for backup quarterback Billy Edwards with Tagovailoa struggling and Locksley went to Edwards midway through the fourth quarter of Saturday’s loss, but there’s no indication a startling change is coming. Plus, Edwards was banged up in his short stint.  

Final Picks

In a normal situation, the Terps probably lose this game big. However, I simply think the Buckeyes will be looking ahead and Maryland can certainly stay within 27 at home to cover the NCAAF odds. Something like 45-24.

OSU is 1-4 ATS in its past 5 on the road.  

NCAAF Pick: Over 62 (-110) at BetOnline

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Over 62 (-110)
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NCAAF Pick: Maryland +27.5 (-115) at BetOnline 

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Maryland +27.5 (-115)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.