Notre Dame vs. Syracuse NCAAF Week 9: Can the Orange Rebound?

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Tobias Merriweather #15 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish celebrates a touchdown reception with Joe Wilkins Jr. #5 against the Stanford Cardinals. Michael Reaves/Getty Images/AFP.

Last week Syracuse lost their first game of the season and is seeking to avenge that debut defeat with a victory over the Fighting Irish.

Let’s review the college football odds and analyze this matchup as we look to keep cashing our college football picks.

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Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Syracuse Orange

Saturday, October 29, 2022 – 12:00 PM EDT at JMA Wireless Dome

Entering this season, the expectations for Syracuse were modest. Winning more than they lost would have been considered a step in the right direction, particularly after finishing with a 5-7 record last season.

But things have taken a decided turn for the better as the Orange started the season with six wins for only the third time since 1935 when they defeated NC State two weeks ago.

But some of the luster of this Cinderella story wore off last week when Syracuse dropped a 27-21 decision to No. 5 Clemson at Death Valley.

Syracuse's Loss

However, it wasn’t as much a noble loss as it was a squandered opportunity. Syracuse held a 21-10 advantage heading into the second half, but a series of miscues and a sputtering Orange offense allowed the Tigers to rally.

Syracuse had no answer for a relentless Clemson ground-and-pound attack that racked up 293 rushing yards.

Nevertheless, Syracuse still brought home the cash as 14-point road dogs for all of those who have had the good sense to tail this overachieving bunch.

The Orange are not only 6-1 straight up, but are also 6-1 against the spread entering this Week 9 matchup against Notre Dame.

Irish Keep on Fighting

Had it not been for two miserable losses to Marshall and Stanford in which Notre Dame was installed as 20 and 16 ½ point favorites, respectively, the Irish would have at least kept their preseason status as a ranked team.

Even a marginal win over a less talented team can have severe repercussions with the voting committee, let alone an outright loss.

But as the legendary NFL coach Bill Parcells once said, “You are what your record says you are.” And right now, Notre Dame is nothing short of mediocre entering this Week 9 clash with a 4-3 record after defeating UNLV by the score of 44-21, yet still failing to cover as 26-point home chalk.

Notre Dame's Stats

Speaking of covering, the Irish are 3-4 against the number and doing their backers no favors at the betting windows in their last two contests.

Getting started has been the bane of Notre Dame’s existence as evidenced by their failure to score a touchdown in the first quarter of their first six games of the season.

Last week they broke that streak with two touchdowns, along with three field goals, that saw the Irish sprint to a 23-7 lead over the Rebels last week.

Team Trends

  • Notre Dame is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. ACC.
  • Notre Dame is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Notre Dame is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Notre Dame is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight-up win.

Total Trends

  • Under is 4-0 in Syracuse’s last 4 games overall.
  • Under is 4-0 in Syracuse’s last 4 games in October.
  • Under is 4-0 in Syracuse’s last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 6-1 in Notre Dame’s last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Notre Dame vs. Syracuse: Pick and Prediction

The Orange will be getting tons of public action because they are a feel-good story and everybody loves an underdog.

The problem with that is that the top-rated sportsbooks have installed the Orange as the favorites and it is the Fighting Irish that are technically the underdogs in this one. Yet, in the eyes of Joe Q. Public, the Orange are the team punching up in weight class.

The Irish have had a penchant for getting up against good teams this season. They gave Ohio State all they could handle in the season opener and limited the Buckeyes to just three touchdowns in a 21-10 loss as 17-point road dogs.

They also beat UNC on the road, 45-32, as three-point road underdogs. And when BYU came knocking at South Bend, they delivered a 28-20 victory as 3 ½ point home favorites.

The Pick

It's not a stretch to say that Syracuse is one of those upper-echelon teams this season which is when the Irish play their best football.

We should also consider the letdown effect of Syracuse losing their first game and erasing any pipe dreams of a CFP invitation.

It’s okay to root for Syracuse this season, but don’t bet with your heart, bet with your head. And in this case, bet Notre Dame plus the points.

Score Prediction: Notre Dame 24 - Syracuse 21

NCAAF Pick: Notre Dame +3 (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Notre Dame +3 (-115)
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NCAAF Pick: Under 47 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Under 47 (-108)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.