The Michigan Wolverines are looking to earn their 10th win and stay undefeated. They’ll take on a Nebraska Cornhuskers team that is 3-6 on the season. But with a spread of 29.5, can you trust Michigan to cover on Saturday?
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Michigan Wolverines
Saturday, November 12, 2022 – 03:30 PM EST at Michigan Stadium
The Michigan Wolverines will look to stay undefeated in a home game against the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Michigan is currently 9-0 and is slotted inside the top four in the CFP Rankings.
If Michigan wins the rest of the way, they’ll play in the CFP for the second straight season. Meanwhile, Nebraska fired their head coach, Scott Frost, earlier this season.
They’re currently 3-6 and likely won’t even be bowl eligible. The fans in Nebraska won’t be happy. Can Nebraska surprise Michigan on the road and keep their bowl eligibility alive?
Can Nebraska End Three-Game Losing Streak?
The Nebraska Cornhuskers have lost three straight games in conference play. The offense has scored 25.6 points per game, while the defense has given up 29.4 points. At times, Nebraska has hung around. The offense is still scoring solid numbers, averaging 387.1 yards per game.
However, the defense has allowed 441 yards. That’s practically why the Cornhuskers have struggled. Casey Thompson has an elbow injury for Nebraska. He hasn’t practiced at the beginning of the week, but he is expected to play in this game.
Thompson has thrown 12 touchdowns but also has ten interceptions on the year. He’s also holding a QBR of 55.7, which is just slightly above average. In Thompson’s defense, the offensive line has struggled in pass protection. It certainly won’t get easier against Michigan’s line up front.
On defense, Nebraska’s pass rush is efficient. The secondary isn’t terrible, either. But they’ve been terrible against the run, allowing 182.9 yards per game. What does Michigan do well? They run the football. Michigan has earned 250 yards on the ground with Blake Corum, who has rushed for 1187 yards on 199 carries for 16 touchdowns.
Blake Corum and Michigan Should Dominate Nebraska
Blake Corum is currently a legitimate Heisman candidate. As I said above, he’s already rushed for 16 touchdowns and has 1187 yards without even earning 200 carries. The offense has gained 250 yards per game on the ground, and quarterback J.J. McCarthy has been good at keeping turnovers down, throwing 12 touchdowns with just two interceptions.
Michigan’s run game is one of the best in the country. Nebraska’s defense against the run is one of the worst of Power 5 schools. Plus, Michigan’s allowing just 242.4 yards per game on defense. They’ve given up just 170 yards in the passing game and 72.4 yards on the ground per game.
The Wolverines have been one of the best defenses in the nation, especially against the run and in coverage. The Wolverines have also dominated with discipline tackling and a solid pass rush.
Prediction and Pick
The Michigan Wolverines are massive favorites against Nebraska in top-rated sportsbooks. They should be. There’s not a huge talent gap between the two teams, but only Michigan knows how to execute.
The Wolverines should be able to run all over Nebraska in this game. Nebraska’s run defense is weak, while Michigan’s got the best rusher in America, running behind an excellent run block unit. Meanwhile, Nebraska’s offensive line has been terrible, especially in pass protection.
Michigan’s pass rush is excellent and should be able to put Thompson in pressure situations. He’s injured and already has thrown ten interceptions on the year. Don’t expect a massive outing from Thompson against a Michigan team that has allowed fewer than 250 yards per game this season. But then again, the spread is sitting at 29.5.
If Michigan continues to run the football and Nebraska keeps Michigan in front, the score won’t look as crooked. Michigan will win this game, but it’s hard to believe that they’ll beat Nebraska by 30 points, especially when they start to let up in the fourth quarter knowing they’ve got a ranked Illinois opponent up next.
Michigan might have to play Illinois in the Big Ten Championship if they can defeat Ohio State in the next week. The Big Ten - West has a lot of exciting scenarios. I won’t get into all of that. But Michigan knows they’ll need to be careful with the health of their players in the second half against Nebraska with a heavy lead.
I love Michigan in this spot, but I won’t be able to back them at -29.5. Following the NCAAF odds, give me Nebraska at +29.5. They’ll keep it closer, especially with Michigan rushing the football and wasting time.