NCAAF Week 9 Top Picks for Friday: East Carolina Invades Provo

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Quarterback Holton Ahlers #12 of the East Carolina Pirates throws a pass against the Navy Midshipmen. Patrick Smith/Getty Images/AFP.

Friday night will feature a twin-bill of college football when East Carolina takes on BYU in Provo, Utah while Louisiana Tech will travel to Miami to battle FIU.

Let’s review the college football odds and analyze these two matchups as we look to keep cashing our college football picks!

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East Carolina Pirates vs. BYU Cougars

Friday, October 28, 2022 – 08:00 PM EDT at LaVell Edwards Stadium

Teams Analysis

East Carolina Pirates

East Carolina is coming off of their most impressive win of the season, a 34-13 demolition of UCF as 5 ½ point home underdogs.

The Pirates held a 17-3 lead at the half over their AAC rivals and continued to get a sterling effort from senior quarterback, Holton Ahlers, who connected for 30-of-36 passes, 311 yards, and a touchdown.

Meanwhile, sophomore running back, Keaton Mitchell, racked up 105 rushing yards and found the end zone twice in the victory over the Knights.

BYU Cougars

After winning four of its first five games, BYU has fallen into a shame spiral by dropping its last three contests, including last week’s 41-14 disaster to Liberty.

The Cougars were installed as seven-point road favorites over the Flames but could muster only 71 rushing yards while Liberty punished BYU’s run-stop unit with 300 yards on the ground and 3 rushing touchdowns.

East Carolina vs. BYU: Picks and Prediction

The point spread is the ultimate equalizer, which is why bad teams are worth betting on if given enough points. But then there are teams like BYU that are not lousy but playing below their potential.

This is one reason why the point spreads remain friendly to their opponents, a good thing if you’ve been putting the Cougars on auto-fade having failed to cover in their last six games.

And so, it is again that we have East Carolina actually getting a field goal head start despite BYU having lost four of their last six games and, as stated, failing to cover in all of them.

Pirates' Plan

The Pirates should be able to move the chains throughout the afternoon as they boast the 21st-ranked offense in total yards while BYU’s defense ranks 94th in total yards allowed.

I believe the top-rated sportsbooks have the wrong favorite, which means we will bet on the Pirates with the points and on the moneyline in this one.

Score Prediction: East Carolina 34 - BYU 30

NCAAF Pick: East Carolina +3 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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East Carolina +3 (-108)
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NCAAF Pick: East Carolina ML (+135) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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East Carolina ML (+135)
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Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs. FIU Panthers

Friday, October 28, 2022 - 08:00 PM EDT at Riccardo Silva Stadium

Teams Analysis

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

The oddsmakers installed Louisiana Tech as 2 ½ point home underdogs to visiting Rice and because of that slight head start, they brought home the cash for their backers yet dropped a heartbreaking 42-41 overtime decision to the Owls.

LA Tech’s coach, Sonny Cumbie, decided to go for the two-point conversion after the Bulldogs answered Rice’s touchdown drive in overtime, but the gamble did not pay off and the Rebels enter this matchup 2-5 straight up and 3-4 against the number.

FIU Panthers

FIU rolled up 34 unanswered points before Charlotte could answer and by that time the game was out of hand.

When the smoke cleared, the Panthers delivered one of their most complete performances of the season en route to a 34-15 win as 13 ½ point road underdogs.

Sophomore quarterback Grayson James was a one-man wrecking crew with 302 yards and a touchdown through the air while rushing for two TDs and 53 yards on the ground.

Louisiana Tech vs. FIU: Picks and Prediction

The key to the oddsmaker’s line is LA Tech’s 20th-ranked passing attack versus FIU’s 105th-ranked pass defense. And because of that, a 2-5 team is laying 8 ½ points on the road.

But you should know the man responsible for the Rebels’ 300.7 passing yards per game average was injured last week, paving the way for freshman QB Landry Lyddy to finish the game.

Matthew Downing

The injured LA Tech quarterback in question is junior Matthew Downing and whether he will be under center for this game is anyone’s guess as of this Monday morning writing.

But even if he does return, how fit will he be, and will the Bulldogs be able to pass their way to a double-digit victory over a conference rival with a better record?

Teams' Trends

It all seems like too many points to give the home team, considering LA Tech allows 38.8 points per game, ranking them 128th in the nation in points allowed.

We should also point out that FIU had three picks and two fumble recoveries last week. FIU’s defense is getting better and the Panthers have now covered in three of their last four games.

Let’s take a look at a few trends heading into this one:

  • Louisiana Tech is 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
  • Louisiana Tech is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS win.
  • Louisiana Tech is 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Under is 4-0 in FIU’s last 4 games overall.

Under is 6-0 in FIU’s last 6 games in October, and Under is 4-0 in FIU’s last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.

Score Prediction: Louisiana Tech 27 - FIU 23

NCAAF Pick: FIU +8 ½ (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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FIU +8 ½ (-110)
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NCAAF Pick: Under 59 (-110) at Bovada

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Under 59 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.