NCAAF Week 8 Picks and Prediction for Kansas State vs. TCU

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Quarterback Adrian Martinez #9 of the Kansas State Wildcats scores a touchdown on a 6-yard keeper against the Oklahoma Sooners. Brian Bahr/Getty Images/AFP.

The two remaining Big 12 teams unbeaten in league play face off with first place on the line when Kansas State travels to TCU.

The Horned Frogs are 6-0 on the season and 3-0 in the Big 12 under new coach Sonny Dykes, while Kansas State is 5-1, 3-0 in the league.

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Kansas State Wildcats vs. TCU Horned Frogs

Saturday, October 22, 2022 – 08:00 PM EDT at Amon G. Carter Stadium

Someone’s 0 must go when the two remaining Big 12 teams unbeaten in the league face off on Saturday night. The game features the best offense in the Big 12 in Texas Christian facing the toughest defense the Horned Frogs have seen yet this season.

The Wildcats allow 16.7 points per game, more than 11 fewer than any Big 12 opponent TCU has faced so far this year.

Shutdown Defense

The Wildcats are among national leaders in scoring defense (14th), passing defense (15th) , turnover margin (fourth), third-down defense (12th), interceptions (14th), fourth-down defense (18th) and tackles for loss (20th).

Defensive end Felix Anudike-Uzomah leads the nation in sacks with 6.5. He also leads the Big 12 with two forced fumbles.

In addition to a top-shelf defense, Kansas State features a ball-control offense, which includes the number two rushing attack in the Power Five.

Adrian Martinez

The Wildcats rush for 244.5 yards per game. They are led by quarterback Adrian Martinez, a Nebraska transfer who is ninth in the country with 9 rushing touchdowns through six games.

He has 1,600 yards from scrimmage and has thrown 4 touchdowns with no interceptions.

When Martinez doesn’t keep it, he hands off to running back Deuce Vaughn, who is averaging 100 yards per game this season. Martinez and Vaughn are the only QB/RB tandem in college football to each have 500 rushing yards on the year.

Kansas State has also not been beating itself. They lead the Big 12 in fewest penalty yards and have been below 40 penalty yards in four of their six games this year.

Injuries Report

On the injury front, Anudike-Uzomah and Vaughn both left the last game and didn’t return, and Martinez was seen limping afterward.

However, the bye came at an ideal time for the ailing Wildcats, and coach Chris Klieman said last week, "Nobody that got injured on Saturday would be out a significant amount of time.

We would envision everybody practicing, probably not this week, but next week for sure. We didn't lose anybody long term."

Frog Wild

The Horned Frogs have one of the top offenses in all of football and it is a clear NCAAF pick for this matchup. TCU ranks second in the nation in yards per play and third in scoring offense and total offense.

The Frogs lead all of college football in percentage of big plays (12 yard runs and 15 yard passes) on offense.

They are scoring 17 more points per game than last season and gaining 90 more yards per game, making them one of the most improved offenses in football as well.

Top-rated sportsbooks back TCU since they have beaten ranked opponents in each of the last three games, the first time in school history the Horned Frogs have done that.

Max Duggan

Max Duggan, who took over as starting quarterback after Chandler Morris was hurt in the opener, has thrown for 1,591 yards and 16 touchdowns with just one interception, adding another 261 yards and four touchdowns on the ground.

He’s sixth in the country in pass efficiency. He’s completing 89.5% of his passes which is on pace to set a school record.

Frog's Defense

Running back Kendre Miller has topped 100 yards on the ground in three games this season and has scored a touchdown in seven straight, dating back to last year.

The defense is much improved over last season. TCU is giving up 8.4 fewer points per game than last year, the ninth-best improvement in Power Five, and 61.8 fewer yards, which is 12th-best in Power Five.

The Picks

TCU has been unstoppable on offense, but Kansas State’s defense features the toughest test so far.

We like Kansas State’s running game to produce against TCU’s defense more than TCU’s chances when the Horned Frogs have the ball. Following the NCAAF odds, look for K-State to spring the upset.

Score Prediction: Kansas State 35 - TCU 28

NCAAF Pick: Kansas State +3.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Kansas State +3.5 (-108)
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NCAAF Pick: Kansas State ML (+145) at Heritage Sports

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Kansas State ML (+145)
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NCAAF Pick: Over 55.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports

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Over 55.5 (-108)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.