NCAAF Week 8 Pick and Prediction for Texas vs. Oklahoma State

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Quinn Ewers #3 of the Texas Longhorns throws a pass against the Iowa State Cyclones. Tim Warner/Getty Images/AFP.

Another week, another critical contest in the Big 12 Conference, and a free NCAAF pick for the clash between the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma State Cowboys is on tap.

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Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys

Saturday, October 22, 2022 – 03:30 PM EDT at Boone Pickens Stadium

In the wild and wacky world of Big 12 football, those college football futures tickets that some folks are holding on TCU and Kansas State are looking mighty tasty as we head into the final two weekends of October.

Come next week, things are very likely going to change in a conference where up is down and down is up, with the victor of this week’s collision between the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma State Cowboys guaranteed of becoming a favorite for the Big 12 title.

‘Horns Drawing Chalk Line on the Road

Helping to prove the up is down and down is up claim, as well as how the size of a team’s public following plays a huge role in spread calculations. The NCAAF odds have Texas – No. 20 and on the road – favored by 6-6½ over an Oklahoma State team that is No. 11 and at home.

With the two sides sporting conflicting records in the totals column, the Longhorns 2-5 O/U and the Cowboys 5-1 O/U, Saturday’s scoreboard number is 63½-64 at most shops.

Texas Pushed to Limit by Cyclones

Coming off an emotional and huge win over the Oklahoma Sooners a week before in the Red River Shootout, everyone expected the Longhorns to come out a little flat this past Saturday against Iowa State, and Texas lived up to those expectations.

Quinn Ewers and the offense eventually woke up. The Longhorns got on the board with a couple of touchdowns in the second quarter, then one final drive to post a 24-21 victory. The late score avoided the outright upset as 15½-point favorites at BetOnline.

It was something of a mixed bag on the defensive side of the football. Texas stepped up and halted Iowa State’s final drive with a takeaway and held the Cyclones’ running game in check. The Longhorns were, however, often caught in lax coverage in the passing game.

Cowboys Stunned by Frogs

Up by 17 on the road early in the second quarter and still holding a 14-point lead heading into the fourth against TCU, the Cowboys fell apart and dropped a 43-40 decision to the Horned Frogs in double-overtime.

Oklahoma State grabbed the momentum when Spencer Sanders ran for two scores in the first quarter, and the senior quarterback tossed a scoring strike to John Paul Richardson early in the second to make it 24-7 in a contest that the NCAAF odds closed with the Cowboys +5.

Sanders and the Oklahoma State offense apparently thought they’d done their job at that point, and the defense was totally baffled by Max Duggan and the Horned Frogs who amassed over 500 yards of offense in balanced fashion and won the time-of-possession battle.

Underdogs Have Covered Last 5

Texas and Oklahoma State are getting together for the 37th time, and it’s the Longhorns who hold a commanding 26-10 lead in the rivalry that dates to 1916 when they were members of the original Southwest Conference.

The Longhorns also have the 17-9 edge in Big 12 matchups. The Cowboys own current bragging rights with last year’s win. Oklahoma State rallied from two touchdowns down for a 32-24 win as 3½-point underdogs at top-rated sportsbooks, the third time in the last four meetings for the underdog to win outright.

  • It took overtime the last time the game was played in Stillwater, Texas eventually posting a 41-34 triumph as a 3½-point underdog.
  • Last year’s contest in Austin failed to reach a 61½-point total, but the last three at Boone Pickens Stadium have gone past the marks.

Tough Closing Schedules Await Both Sides

Every game is a must-win for teams at this point on the schedule, but it’s especially true for Oklahoma State with road dates at Kansas State and Kansas the next two weeks, plus the Bedlam matchup at Oklahoma to close the regular season.

This is the first of three successive matchups against ranked teams for Texas. The Longhorns take next week off, then go to Kansas State before hosting TCU, and they also have a road game against the Kansas Jayhawks ahead.

Road Chalk or Home‘ Dogs?

It’s going to be sunny, warm, and windy in Stillwater on Saturday, with the thermometer expected to climb into the mid-80s and a southerly blow that could gust in excess of 20 mph.

That crosswind could wreak havoc on the kicking game, but the biggest factor is whether or not the Oklahoma State defense will come to play. My money’s on Texas in a 36-28 final.

NCAAF Pick: Texas -6 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Texas -6 (-108)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.