One of the best things about making NCAAF picks is that you get to spend all Saturday watching football. The games typically start at the crack of noon Eastern, and they don’t stop until close to midnight, or even later, when the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors are playing at home.
We don’t have Hawaii on our list for Week 5, but we do have two nooners for your college football picks. Then we’re off to Chestnut Hill to see a former national champion try to claw their way back into the title picture.
Michigan Wolverines vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Saturday, October 08, 2022 – 12:00 PM EDT at Memorial Stadium
People seem to have forgotten how good of a coach Jim Harbaugh is. Maybe the expectations were a bit high during his first few seasons at his alma mater, but the Wolverines broke through last year at 12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS, and they’re still making money this year at 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS.
According to the analytic models we’re using, there’s still a healthy profit margin available for Saturday’s matchup with Indiana (3-2 SU, 1-4 ATS).
The Hoosiers haven’t covered since Week 1, and they’re way down the list at No. 83 overall (No. 92 offense, No. 73 defense) on the latest SP+ charts at ESPN.
The Wolverines, meanwhile, are congruent with their AP ranking at No. 4 (No. 6 offense, No. 11 defense). There were some concerns about QB J.J. McCarthy, but he’s been “game managing” behind a quality offensive line, leaning on RB Blake Corum (6.6 yards per carry) to get Michigan across the goal line. Looks like we have the next Tom Brady on our hands.
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Saturday, October 08, 2022 - 12:00 PM EDT at Davis Wade Stadium
The Bulldogs (4-1 SU, 3-1-1 ATS) are a real pain in the toches. We’ve made money off them in the past, but we took Texas A&M last week as 3.5-point road dogs on the NCAAF odds board. Final score: Aggies 24, Bulldogs 42.
Our models want us to fade Mississippi State again this week. The Razorbacks (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) aren’t dominating the SEC by any means, but they’re doing all right at No. 31 overall (No. 19 offense, No. 57 defense) on the Week 5 SP+ charts.
They can certainly run the ball. RB Raheim Sanders (5.8 yards per carry) is a beast, and KJ Jefferson (3.9 yards per carry) is an effective dual-threat quarterback, even if he’s not slinging the ball around as much as hoped.
The Razorbacks had a hard time penetrating Alabama’s run defense last week, but maybe they’ll do better against the Bulldogs, who check in at No. 11 (No. 21 offense, No. 22 defense) on the SP+ charts. At the very least, the Arkansas running game can chew up the clock better than the Aggies did, thus keeping Mike Leach’s offense off the field and making the cover more likely.
Clemson Tigers vs. Boston College Eagles
Saturday, October 08, 2022 - 07:30 PM EDT at Alumni Stadium
Our models are giving the slightest edge to Clemson (5-0 SU, 2-3 ATS), but it’s a virtual coin flip. And while the Under gets a bit more love here, you’ll still want to keep your bet fun-sized, in part because the Tigers and Eagles (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS) each have the Over at 3-2 heading into Week 6.
It’s good to see Clemson getting themselves back in the title hunt after falling out of contention last year at 9-3. But are they really in the hunt? The Tigers only rank No. 18 (No. 25 offense, No. 19 defense) on the SP+ charts, having played a fairly soft schedule up to this point.
Clemson are light-years ahead of Boston College, who are way down in the muck at No. 89 (No. 112 offense, No. 64 defense) according to SP+. That offense/defense split gives us a pretty good hint why the models like the Under here; the Eagles have almost no offensive line left to speak of after a rash of injuries, including torn ACLs for guard Christian Mahogany and tackle Kevin Cline.
At the same time, BC did somehow manage to beat the Louisville Cardinals 34-33 last week (Over 48.5) as 13.5-point road dogs, so again, temper your bets accordingly, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.