NCAAF Week 6 Parlay at (+273) Features the Promising Louisville and Missouri

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Tyler Stephens #80 of the Missouri Tigers celebrates with Brady Cook #12 after scoring a touchdown against the Georgia Bulldogs Jay Biggerstaff/Getty Images/AFP.

Top sportsbooks have released their NCAAF odds for this week’s action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Louisville vs. Virginia and Missouri vs. Florida.

For reasons that I will explain, you should play the spread for both games. Feel free to parlay both bets at one of our best sportsbooks in order to maximize your profit.

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Louisville Cardinals vs. Virginia Cavaliers

Saturday, October 08, 2022 – 12:00 PM EDT at Scott Stadium

Disappointment Against Duke

I thought that Duke would be the perfect opponent against which Virginia might break out of its offensive slump.

Even after last week's success, Duke, a team that Virginia typically succeeds against, ranks 10th (out of 14 teams) in the ACC in passing defense.

Plus, Billy Kemp returned (although he reinjured himself and likely won't play this week), and quarterback Brennan Armstrong was getting some respectable measure of run support in the form of the improved and efficient Perris Jones.

Hopeless Armstrong

However, against Duke, Armstrong once again struggled to complete more than half of his passes. Armstrong, moreover, is still throwing more interceptions than touchdowns on the season despite having faced the likes of Richmond and Old Dominion.

To be clear, I do not dislike Armstrong this week simply because of what he did last week, it is basically never acceptable to derive one's thoughts on a given game from one's observations of the last game. All year long, Armstrong has been awful.

Mentally, he doesn't make good decisions, often overlooking open receivers while staring down well-covered options. One might say that these poor decisions are a product of the change in the offensive scheme. But this change can't explain everything that's wrong with Armstrong.

For example, he does sometimes make the right decision only to overthrow or underthrow his target. No change in the offensive scheme can whether a quarterback hits or fails to hit an open target.

More Offensive Problems for Virginia

I mentioned drops in a previous article, and they are an issue because Virginia's lack of depth at wide receiver is forcing a lower number of them to spend more time on the field, which leads to fatigue.

However, Armstrong owns the worst completion percentage among ACC quarterbacks, and accounting for drops by considering the adjusted completion percentage doesn't alter the point.

With Armstrong being who he now is, even when he throws more passes like he did last year and he has to come from behind, Virginia regularly struggles to reach 20 points.

Virginia's Run Defense

Given Virginia's offensive struggles, we are left with either betting the "Under" or betting Louisville. This decision comes down to the success of Virginia's run defense.

In the Cavaliers' lowest-scoring game, Old Dominion failed to reach 100 yards. Conversely, when the Cavs gave up its most points all season, its opponent exploded for more than 190 rushing yards.

Louisville's Rush Attack

Louisville is just the team to exploit Virginia's repeatedly vulnerable rush defense. The Cardinals actually lead the ACC in rushing.

They are led by a quarterback in Malik Cunningham who, as Duke's quarterback last week did last week against Virginia, ably rushes for a lot of yards in a given game. Other Cardinals' running backs include Jawhar Jordan, who ran for 91 yards on 5.4 YPC against Florida State.

Now, you'll need to place your bet later in the week because Cunningham is listed as 'day-to-day' after possibly suffering a concussion last week. It might be the case that Louisville only has Jordan to rely on in its rush attack. If that is the case, then the "Under" is the way to go. But if Louisville gets another running back higher in the depth chart than Jordan or if Cunningham is fit to compete, then Louisville is the play.

While it is not ideal that Louisville has a couple of injured running backs, it's also not ideal for Virginia that Kemp is hurt and, obviously, that its run defense has been so bad since its season opener against Richmond.

NCAAF Pick: Louisville -3 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Missouri Tigers vs. Florida Gators

Saturday, October 08, 2022 - 12:00 PM EDT at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium

Missouri Against Mobile Quarterbacks

Mizzou is well-practiced in the art of limiting mobile quarterbacks. The Tigers have had to face Kansas State's Adrian Martinez and Auburn's Robby Ashford.

They improved after limiting Martinez's running to limit Ashford to 1.4 below his season average in YPC and to stymy Auburn's top running back.

Missouri has allowed a lot of rushing yards because it has faced opponents who love to run the ball. But the Tigers rank 30th nationally at limiting opposing YPC.

Their run defense ability is crucial given Florida's overall reliance on running the ball, to which quarterback Anthony Richardson's inaccurate and inefficient passing contributes as does his need to run the ball instead of pass it.

Gators' Defense Against Tigers' Rush Attack

Florida's weekly defensive woes make it a constant threat to lose. Largely because of their defense, the Gators have yet to beat an FBS opponent by more than 3 points, they even almost lost to South Florida at home.

As apparent in their games against Utah, South Florida, and Tennessee, the Gators struggle to limit quarterbacks who can run. Mizzou quarterback Brady Cook can run, he is his team's third-leading rusher.

Furthermore, running backs Cody Schrader and Nathaniel Peat are both efficient options and big-play threats on the ground.

While Cook is also an efficient passer and Florida's pass defense ranks middle-of-the-road nationally at limiting opposing passer rating, Missouri's best offensive impetus on Saturday will come on the ground.

NCAAF Pick: Missouri +10.5 (-105) at BetOnline

NCAAF Parlay Verdict

With your NCAAF picks in mind, expect a strong win from Louisville and an upset bid from Missouri. Although, remember that if Cunningham or at least another top running back on the team can't go, then we should play the "Under" in the Louisville-Virginia game.

For the above reasons, parlay the Cardinals and Tigers ATS. Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.

NCAAF Parlay Picks

  • Louisville vs. Virginia: Louisville -3 (-110)
  • Missouri vs. Florida: Missouri +10.5 (-105)

NCAAF Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+273) at BetOnline

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Two-Legged Parlay (+273)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.