Our college football picks for Week 5 involve three of the biggest programs in the sport: Michigan, Oklahoma, and Texas.
Does anything make sense in college football anymore? One week, the favorites are raking in the cash; the next, it’s the underdogs. Most recently, it happened in Week 4, where they went 36-29-1 ATS (55.4%). Up is down, left is right, dogs and cats living together.
If only the Wisconsin Badgers had gotten the news. They dropped a 52-21 decision to the Ohio State Buckeyes as 17.5-point road dogs, making it a very sad week for our NCAAF picks here at the ranch.
Let’s see if our shiny new analytic models can conjure up some profitable picks for three of the biggest-name matchups on the Week 5 schedule, starting with the mighty Big Ten.
Michigan Wolverines vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Saturday, October 1, 2022 – 12:00 PM EDT at Kinnick Stadium
What You Should Know
Old-school handicappers would probably recommend Iowa (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) in this spot as a live double-digit dog, but the models think the Wolverines (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) are too good to pass up here. And there’s just a shade more value on the moneyline as we go to press.
While we wait for Football Outsiders to update their rankings, Michigan remains fourth on the Week 5 SP+ charts at ESPN, with Iowa well behind at No. 27.
Iowa Hawkeyes Analysis
The Hawkeyes were No. 21 on the F+ charts (No. 101 offense, No. 2 defense) before their 27-10 victory over the Rutgers Scarlet Knights as 9-point road faves.
Michigan Wolverines Analysis
The thing with the Wolverines is they played a very soft non-conference schedule to start the season.
The F+ Ratings at top-rated sportsbooks are definitely on Michigan’s side. They had the Blue and Maize ranked fourth overall (No. 10 offense, No. 7) defense heading into Week 4, where Michigan couldn’t quite get the cover in their 34-27 win over the Maryland Terrapins (+17 away).
Maryland were their first proper test, and it wasn’t the best game for QB J.J. McCarthy, who struggled in the red zone and leaned on RB Blake Corum (30 carries for 243 yards and two touchdowns) to get the job done.
Michigan vs. Iowa Best Bet
Iowa can’t seem to get much going on offense, though.
This is pretty much the same team that got smacked 42-3 by Michigan (-11.5 away) in last year’s Big Ten Championship Game, except QB Spencer Petras no longer has center Tyler Linderbaum (now with the NFL’s Baltimore Ravens) protecting him. Tough gig.
Oklahoma Sooners vs. TCU Horned Frogs
Saturday, October 1, 2022 – 12:00 PM EDT at Amon G. Carter Stadium
What You Should Know
We had the Under in last week’s game between the Sooners and the Kansas State Wildcats, based in large part on Oklahoma’s improvements on defense with Brent Venables under the headset.
Then the Sooners went and lost 41-34 as 13.5-point home faves. The what?! The models didn’t like OU (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) then, and they don’t like them for Week 5, either.
The sharps were definitely on Oklahoma once the betting window opened.
It’s a virtual toss up between taking the Horned Frogs (3-0 SU and ATS) on the spread or the moneyline, but we’re going ML again, now that the TCU have moved from +180 to +220 on the NCAAF odds board at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review).
TCU may be undefeated, but their strength of schedule has been much worse than OU’s up to this point, leaving them at No. 32 on the SP+ charts, 27 spots behind the Sooners. They’re still worth a shot at this price.
Oklahoma vs. TCU Best Bet
The Frogs have looked pretty good in their first three games under head coach Sonny Dykes, and that extra week off means they’ll be the fresher of the two teams this Saturday in Fort Worth.
NCAAF Pick: TCU ML (+220) at BetOnline
West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Texas Longhorns
Saturday, October 1, 2022 – 07:30 PM EDT at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
What You Should Know
Interestingly enough, our models are recommending a third moneyline bet for Week 5, and it’s on the Longhorns (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS), even though they fell out of the AP Top 25 after losing 37-34 to the Texas Tech Red Raiders (+7 away) in overtime.
Not to worry. The fact that Texas was able to hang with the Alabama Crimson Tide (-21 away) in Week 2 before losing 20-19 speaks volumes for their potential.
West Virginia vs. Texas Best Bet
The ‘Horns are No. 11 on this week’s SP+ rankings, while West Virginia (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) find themselves at No. 40.
Bet accordingly, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.
NCAAF Pick: Texas ML (-325) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.