We’ve got three of the biggest matchups on the Week 4 NCAAF odds board all lined up for you. Will the favorites have another field day?
What was that we said about the underdogs still having some fight in them? After rebounding somewhat in Week 2, the dogs got smoked 41-29-2 ATS (58.6 percent) in Week 3.
Fortunately for us, the Kansas Jayhawks (+9.5 at the close) avoided the carnage in their 48-30 upset win over Houston, levelling our college football picks at 2-2 here at the ranch.
Cupcake Games to Be Over
It’s all flotsam under the bridge now. Week 4 spells the end of the non-conference “cupcake” games, for the most part, and the beginning of conference play.
But we’ve still got some serious chalk to deal with, starting with our first matchup in Tuscaloosa. Let’s see where our shiny new analytic models think the betting value is.
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Saturday, September 24, 2022 – 07:30 PM EDT at Bryant-Denny Stadium
Commodores vs. Crimson Tide Analysis
What to do, what to do. The models don’t like Alabama at all; they didn’t like them in Week 1 either, but the Tide covered as 41.5-point home faves in their win over Utah State.
Then Alabama (-21 away) barely beat Texas before once again rolling to the pay window in their destruction of UL-Monroe (+49.5 away).
As for the Commodores, they’re 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS, having snuck in an extra game in Week 0. It’s hard to get a handle on them, too, although all four of their games did go Over their posted totals on the NCAAF odds board.
Too bad the models are giving the slightest of leans towards the Under for Saturday’s contest. As expected, they prefer the ‘Dores as 40.5-point road dogs at Heritage (visit our Heritage Sports Review), but the early money has driven Vanderbilt down as low as +39.5 at the other top-rated sportsbooks on our betting board.
Vanderbilt vs. Alabama: Best Bet
Good thing there’s still one more straight bet option on our plate. The moneyline odds are still on hold as we go to press, but if you can get the Tide at -10000 or shorter, there’s more potential value there than you’ll find with the spread. Just as well.
Vandy are on an upward trajectory in Year Two under head coach Clark Lea; they can run the ball pretty well behind their stout offensive line, which gives them a good chance of chewing up the clock and covering in a game where the 59-point total isn’t that much bigger than the spread.
Let’s avoid all that and take the Tide straight-up for a small wager, if the price is right.
NCAAF Pick: Alabama ML (TBD) at Heritage Sports
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Saturday, September 24, 2022 - 07:30 PM EDT at Ohio Stadium
Badgers vs. Buckeyes Analysis
Now here’s a dog we can get behind. The Badgers look very tasty indeed as 18-point puppies at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review).
They’re a classic “regional” Big Ten NCAAF pick versus the much more popular Buckeyes, and they’re already off to a profitable start this year at 2-1 SU and ATS, while undefeated Ohio State are in the red at 1-2 ATS.
As is often the case, the models like the Under as well as the underdogs, so there might be some temptation to combine those bets in a 2-team parlay. But we’ll stick with the single bet this time, unless that total keeps climbing before kick-off, as totals are wont to do.
Wisconsin vs. Ohio State: Best Bet
The Over/Under has already leapt from 56 to 57 at GT Bets (visit our GTBets Review), even with the consensus reports at BMR showing 100% unanimous consent for the Under.
Early money is sharp money, right? Well, the Buckeyes are also showing 92% support, so in deference, let’s make this another small bet to protect ourselves.
NCAAF Pick: Wisconsin +18 (-107) at BetOnline
Kansas State Wildcats vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Saturday, September 24, 2022 - 08:00 PM EDT at Memorial Stadium
Wildcats vs. Sooners Analysis
Boomer Sooner? Oklahoma (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) are getting it done for new head coach Brent Venables, but our models prefer Kansas State (2-1 SU and ATS) as 13-point road dogs at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review).
Then again, the consensus is 100% behind the Sooners at press time. And there isn’t a lot of profit margin waiting for us on the spread.
The margin is even slimmer for Under 52, at least according to the models, but we’re taking this route once again.
Kansas State vs. Oklahoma: Best Bet
Each team in this contest has the Under at 3-0, and the fine folks at Heritage have their usual -108 vigorish on the board to help us out.
Oklahoma’s attention to defense under Venables is the key here; they cashed in for us in Week 2, so let’s see if they can do it again, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.
NCAAF Pick: Under 52 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.