NCAAF Week 3 Saturday Specials Include Mississippi State vs. LSU

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TUCSON, ARIZONA - SEPTEMBER 10: Wide receiver Caleb Ducking #4 of the Mississippi State Bulldogs catches a touchdown despite cornerback Isaiah Rutherford #2 of the Arizona Wildcats during the NCAA football game at Arizona Stadium on September 10, 2022 in Tucson, Arizona. Rebecca Noble/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Rebecca Noble / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

Week 3 of the 2022 campaign is full of tasty matchups for your college football picks, including Mississippi State, the “real” No. 1.

Order has been restored to college football. It turns out the underdogs have some hope after all; after getting obliterated in Week 1, the dogs were a relatively normal 40-42-1 ATS in Week 2, and there were some big upsets and close shaves (cough cough Alabama cough) in the mix.

We’re still a bit leery about fading those big-name programs here at the ranch.

But we’re definitely more comfortable with trusting our shiny new analytic models for our Week 3 college football picks. Let’s see what’s on the menu for Saturday.

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Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. LSU Tigers

Saturday, September 17, 2022 – 06:00 PM EDT at Tiger Stadium

Bulldogs vs. Tigers Analysis

Well well, look who’s No. 1 on the SRS charts. Mississippi State (2-0 SU and ATS) are coming off convincing wins over Memphis (+17 away) and Arizona (+13 at home), and our models say they’re worth the requisite one unit this Saturday as 2-point road faves.

Conveniently enough, the Bulldogs have moved from back down from -2 to -1.5 on the NCAAF odds board at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review). That’s where they opened before steaming all the way to -3.

Mississippi State vs. Louisiana State: Best Bet

Apparently, LSU (1-1 SU and ATS) are getting some bounce-back love from bettors, but that season-opening loss to Florida State (+4 on neutral ground) leaves them at No. 60 on the SRS charts.

Bet accordingly, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

NCAAF Pick: Mississippi State -1.5 (-110) at Bookmaker

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Mississippi State -1.5 (-110)
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California Golden Bears vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Saturday, September 17, 2022 - 02:30 PM EDT at Notre Dame Stadium

Golden Bears vs. Fighting Irish Analysis

My goodness, the Fighting Irish (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) actually lost 26-21 to the Marshall Thundering Herd last week as 20-point home faves. That’s the Thundering Herd of the Sun Belt Conference, so at least it’s not an FCS team, but c’mon.

Despite that sad performance, our models like Notre Dame this week versus the Golden Bears (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS), although only for a fun-size wager.

There’s an interesting betting dynamic at play here, with the Irish opening at -12 on the NCAAF odds board at Heritage (visit our Heritage Sports Review) before dropping a couple of points; this is with Notre Dame pulling in 57% consensus according to the BMR reports at press time.

California vs. Notre Dame: Best Bet

While the Fighting Irish have tumbled out of the AP Top 25, it’s important not to get too caught up in what Cal have done thus far.

Victories over UC-Davis (+14 away) and UNLV (+13 away) are fine, but poor strength of schedule leaves the Bears at No. 43 on the Simple Rating System (SRS) charts at top-rated sportsbooks through two games.

To be fair, though, that’s only two spots behind Notre Dame. We did say the profit margin was pretty low for this matchup, so keep that bet size appropriately small in response.

NCAAF Pick: Notre Dame -10 (-108) at Heritage Sports

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Notre Dame -10 (-108)
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Ole Miss Rebels vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Saturday, September 17, 2022 - 03:30 PM EDT at Bobby Dodd Stadium

Rebels vs. Yellow Jackets Analysis

We’re in a similar situation with Ole Miss (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS), except they’ve moved up from -14.5 to -16 at GTbets (visit our GTbets Review), with 95 percent of early bettors on the Rebs.

That may have been a sharp bet at the open, but the models we’re looking at are once again recommending a tiny bet on the favorites.

Georgia Tech (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) have seen better days. They’ve been spinning their wheels since Paul Johnson, the master of the flexbone offense, retired in 2018 and was replaced by Geoff Collins, who’s no fan of the triple option.

Ole Miss vs. Georgia Tech: Best Bet

The Jackets are No. 97 on the SRS charts; Ole Miss are No. 30, so they’re probably being overvalued based on their No. 20 spot on the AP poll, therefore, the small bet alert.

NCAAF Pick: Ole Miss -16 (-109) at GTbets

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Kansas Jayhawks vs. Houston Cougars

Saturday, September 17, 2022 – 04:00 PM EDT at TDECU Stadium

Jayhawks vs. Cougars Analysis

Pretty much everyone agrees that the Jayhawks (2-0 SU and ATS) are the right college football pick for this matchup.

The consensus at press time is 100-percent on Kansas, and the Cougars (1-1 SU and ATS) are licking their wounds after losing to Texas Tech (-3.5 at home) and falling out of the AP rankings.

Houston did cover in that 33-30 overtime loss, though. And their 37-35 win over UTSA (+3.5 away) in Week 1 also went to overtime, so it’s hard to say exactly where the Cougars are right now, other than No. 90 on the SRS charts.

Kansas vs. Houston: Best Bet

Again, the models aren’t gushing about Kansas’ potential profit margin here.

The ‘Hawks are No. 47 overall according to SRS, despite their 55-42 overtime upset of West Virginia (-14 at home) in Week 2. Another small bet would be prudent... at this... juncture.

NCAAF Pick: Kansas +10 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.