There are some massive dogs on the Week 2 NCAAF odds board, but it might be worth eating the chalk on some of these cupcake contests.
They say that betting Week 2 of the football season, be it NFL or NCAAF picks, is all about taking advantage of chumps who over-react to what they saw in Week 1. But maybe this year is different.
Maybe the best teams in the FBS have jumped so far ahead of the pack with all this new money floating around that they’ve broken the game, at least in the short term. I say that after the favorites started the 2022 campaign at 52-42 ATS (55.3 percent), including the Week 0 games.
Is There Any Hope for the Underdogs?
The massive underdogs our models supported in this space couldn’t keep up; UTEP barely missed covering against No. 9 Oklahoma, and Rice didn’t even come close against No. 14 USC.
Fortunately, we were on the good side of the two FBS-FCS matchups in last week’s column, taking the FBS teams blindly, and comparing No. 10 Baylor and No. 16 Miami to Floyd Mayweather facing Conor McGregor, with Albany and Bethune-Cookman respectively playing the patsy role.
Maybe these other FBS vs. FBS “cupcake” games have become more like Mayweather-McGregor as well. I saw some superior athleticism from the big-name programs last week; now that there’s so much NIL money out there, and players can transfer at the drop of a hat, is there any hope left for the smaller programs in college football? We shall see.
In the meantime, our models (which will catch up eventually) are really big on Oklahoma’s opponents for Week 2, and they’re giving a slight edge to another sizeable underdog on the college football odds board. Let’s temper our enthusiasm for now by making smaller wagers and/or looking at different betting options.
Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Saturday, September 10, 2022 – 07:00 PM EDT at Memorial Stadium
Despite the Sooners humbling UTEP 45-13 last week as 30.5-point home faves on the closing line (we had the Miners at +31.5), and despite Kent State losing 45-20 to Washington (–23.5 at home), our shiny new analytic models are practically begging us to take the Golden Flashes as 32.5-point underdogs at Heritage (visit our Heritage Sports Review). Should we, though?
The early consensus reports show 100-percent enthusiastic consent for the Sooners, which suggests that the sharp money is on Oklahoma. So I’m calling an audible here and going with the Under at top-rated sportsbooks, which the models also like, albeit not as much as Kent State. It’s a perfectly cromulent pick.
The Sooners' defense already looks better under new head coach Brent Venables, and the offense is still clicking, but perhaps not the way it was when Lincoln Riley was under the headset.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Michigan Wolverines
Saturday, September 10, 2022 - 08:00 PM EDT at Michigan Stadium
The models aren’t quite as big on Hawai’i as 51-point road dogs at Bovada Sportsbook (visit our Bovada Review), but there doesn’t seem to be much wiggle room with that 67-point total, so we might end up sticking with the Warriors in this case. The thing is, they got creamed 49-17 by Western Kentucky (–15.5 away) in Week 1.
The Hilltoppers are not one of those big-name programs we were just talking about. And Michigan completely eviscerated Colorado State 51-7 as 29.5-point home favorites. I’m not going to lie: I’m spooked.
The Warriors program is in complete rebuild mode under new head coach Timmy Chang, and they simply don’t have the talent to stop Michigan, one of the top destinations in all of college football. So let’s make it a minimum wager on the Wolverines ML instead. This wager is for entertainment purposes only, not for investing the college fund.
NCAAF Pick: Michigan (-250000) at Heritage Sports
Baylor Bears vs. Brigham Young Cougars
Saturday, September 10, 2022 - 10:15 PM EDT at LaVell Edwards Stadium
Thank goodness, we wrap things up with a competitive contest that shouldn’t break our models, which think quite highly of Baylor as 3.5-point road dogs, although they’re even bigger fans of the Under, especially now that it’s crept up to 54.5 points at BetOnline.
Maybe we’ll stick with that spread, though. Both teams went Over in Week 1 by double digits, with Baylor actually allowing Albany to score a touchdown before winning 69-10 (Over 45.5), and BYU prevailing 50-21 against USF (Over 61.5).
Saturday’s weather report for Provo also doesn’t have anything in it to support the Under. So let’s take those 21 points the Bulls scored against BYU as a warning sign, and give Baylor the requisite one unit getting more than a field goal.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.