NCAAF Week 11 Best Bets for Saturday: Letdown and Lookahead Matchups

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Josh Williams #27 of the LSU Tigers celebrates a touchdown against the Alabama Crimson Tide. Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images/AFP.

Could LSU be in for a letdown when the Tigers travel to Arkansas? Will Illinois be caught looking ahead and be surprised by Purdue?

Join us as we delve into the NCAAF odds for both games.

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LSU Tigers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks

Saturday, November 12, 2022 – 12:00 PM EST at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium

It was an upset that sent shockwaves throughout the SEC standings as well as the national rankings, but the LSU Tigers still have work ahead of them to reach the conference title game, beginning this week with a dangerous trip to Arkansas to take on the Razorbacks.

Hungry for an upset of their own and still looking for that magic 6th win to become bowl eligible, the Razorbacks are getting 3 points at home in front of what should be a raucous, hog-calling crowd, and Saturday’s scoreboard target is 63.5-64.

Arkansas in Rebound Mode After Upset Loss

Brian Kelly’s decision to go for 2 in overtime will be discussed for years to come, and when Mason Taylor fell across the goal line to give LSU the 32-31 decision, it sunk Alabama’s chances to get back to the College Football Playoffs and keeping the Tigers’ SEC hopes alive.

While LSU was busy getting one of its biggest wins ever, Arkansas was suffering a Week 10 upset loss to Liberty, a contest that saw the Razorbacks fall behind 21-0 early and never able to recover as 14.5-point favorites at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review).

LSU Owns 19-11 Advantage in SEC Play

This series has belonged to LSU since the 2 teams first met as independents in 1901. The Tigers have a 42-23 lead all-time and have been adding to that since the Razorbacks joined the SEC back in 1992 by winning 19 of the 30 conference clashes.

Arkansas owns current bragging rights; however, after a 16-13 overtime win in Baton Rouge, that pushed a 3-point spread at most of the best sportsbooks. That final finished more than 4 touchdowns short of the total, the 4th such outcome in the last 5 meetings.

Bayou Bengals to Bring Home the Bacon

It should be a nice, crisp afternoon in the Ozarks on Saturday afternoon, with the forecast calling for plenty of sunshine and the thermometer sitting around 40°F at kickoff.


The Pick

At the final gun, the scoreboard should be sitting pretty for LSU fans and backers as the Tigers cruise to a 36-28 victory.

NCAAF Pick: LSU -3 (-104) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

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LSU -3 (-104)
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Purdue Boilermakers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini

Saturday, November 12, 2022 - 12:00 PM EST at Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)

While we know the East Division of the Big Ten will be decided by the winner of the Michigan-Ohio State game, the West Division is up in the air and could become even messier after this week’s Purdue-Illinois matchup.

The Fighting Illini have control of their own destiny with a 1-game lead atop the West currently, but it’s going to be difficult for Bret Bielema and his staff to keep their players from at least glancing ahead to a tough road trip to Ann Arbor next week.

Contrasting Total Results

Action has been split evenly since Purdue opened -6.5, keeping the spread right where it started. The total has dropped a couple of points since it was introduced, currently at 44.5 for a couple of teams that have performed very differently in the column (Purdue 6-3 O/U, Illinois 2-6-1 O/U/P).

Both Sides off Upset Defeats

All the momentum Purdue gained in a 4-game win streak, has been lost in the last 2 weeks in losses at Wisconsin and home against Iowa. Closing as small favorites on BMR’s live odds board last week against the Hawkeyes, the Boilermakers laid an egg in a 24-3 loss.

It was even worse for the Fighting Illini last Saturday, dropping a 23-15 decision to Michigan State as 16-point home chalk despite winning every key statistical battle.

Last 5 Meetings Come Up Short on Scoreboard

Saturday marks the 98th meeting between the Boilermakers and Fighting Illini, and it’s Purdue with the 46-45-6 lead in the rivalry after winning the last 2 matchups. Each of the last 5 clashes never made it to the totals.

Cold and Raw in Champaign

Unless you’re a duck, this will be a good one to pull up a stool at your favorite tavern to watch. The weatherman is calling for temps in the mid-30s Saturday afternoon in Champaign, with cloudy skies accompanying a 12-18 mph blow from the NW.


The Pick

A couple of inconsistent teams getting together never make it easy to come up with a winning college football pick, but the smart play here is to take the Boilermakers plus the points.

Illinois wins 24-21 but fails to cover.

NCAAF Pick: Purdue +6.5 (-104) at Bookmaker

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Purdue +6.5 (-104)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.