NCAAF National Championship Late Value Picks – Dawgs a Slim Choice and More

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NCAAF Pick:  Georgia -12.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Georgia -12.5 (-108)
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It is the last college football game of the year, the CFP national championship. One last time we get to study the NCAAF betting odds and make our college football picks until late August this year.

TCU Horned Frogs vs. Georgia Bulldogs

Monday, January 9, 2023 – 07:30 PM EST at SoFi Stadium

This is your classic David vs. Goliath matchup and the betting odds point toward that. But in sports as in life, what is supposed to happen and what ACTUALLY does happen can be two different scenarios.

The Case For TCU to Cover and Possibly Pull The Upset

TCU quarterback Max Duggan will have to play the game of his life. If he gets help and Georgia makes some of the same mistakes Michigan did, the Horned Frogs can keep this close.

David (or TCU) has the kind of passing game to put Georgia’s secondary on notice and after two games like they just played, their confidence has to be shaken. Goliath’s (or the Bulldogs) pass defense has to have a steady pass rush to get Duggan off his game, however, this year, Kirby Smart’s stop troops are more in accordance with generating pressure on quarterbacks.

This season TCU was No. 20 in rushing yards and currently sits at 206 per game. They will have to establish the rush against the No. 1 running team in the country in Georgia. In order to keep the Dawgs honest, they have to understand they probably won’t run wide because of Georgia’s speed or up the middle because of their girth and athleticism.

Instead, the best course of action is right at or just outside their tackles, where the running backs can choose a lane, either side of the tackle, and have a pulling guard or tight end work to pick off a linebacker.

The Case For Georgia to Cover

Let’s start with the basics, talent. If you had power ratings to establish betting lines and who the best teams were all season, it was Georgia, Ohio State, and Alabama. The amount of NFL ability those rosters have is head and shoulders above the next tier, excluding the USC offense.

We’ll go out on a limb and say coach Smart will not be as dumb as the Michigan defensive coordinator and keep blitzing Duggan, who immediately recognized what he saw and created huge big plays with the pass or run.

The focus of the Bulldogs’ defense will be to take away the run and force TCU into third and long situations where they can dictate the tempo of the game.

Another area the Georgia defense will look to be like sharks is creating turnovers with the Horned Frogs quietly having five in their past two contests.

It is a given the Bulldogs will move the ball and if they are efficient in the red zone, TCU could be in trouble.

Best Late Value Picks for Championship Game

The point spread opened at -13 and has slid to -12.5 in favor of Georgia. That is worth watching since 13 is not a real key number, but is one where football games land.

Because TCU doesn’t give up, +13 has its merits because you know they will fight to the end unless they keep turning the pigskin over. Though it is only a half point, scores like 37-24 or 41-28 are real possibilities.

The best advice is to watch for line movement and if you can find +13 or higher take TCU, but at -12.5 or lower, the Dawgs are the play, with low unit wagers.

Score Prediction: Georgia 41 – TCU 27

NCAAF Pick:  Georgia -12.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Georgia -12.5 (-108)
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More Value Picks for Championship Game

Earlier this week, we broke down the total and one other element to consider against the college football odds and you can review it here, with our views only modestly altered.

The price may vary but we expect Duggan to perform well to quality Horned Frogs receivers versus what has turned into a suspect secondary. If TCU ends up trailing in the fourth quarter, they will be forced to pass which could add up the yardage.

Also remember, in college football the sacks come off the rush yards, not the passing yards. 

Fans from the Lone Star State who wish to make a wager in this game should be sure to check out our top-rated Texas betting sites.

NCAAF Pick: TCU QB Max Duggan Over 240.5 Passing Yards (-114) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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TCU QB Max Duggan Over 240.5 Passing Yards (-114)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.