NCAAF Last Chance Value Picks for Week 4: Arkansas, Duke and East Carolina 3-Pack

profile image of Doug.Upstone
holton-ahlers-east-carolina-pirates-navy-midshipmen-aspect-ratio-16-9
Quarterback Holton Ahlers #12 of the East Carolina Pirates celebrates a touchdown against the Navy Midshipmen. Patrick Smith/Getty Images/AFP.

It is the last Saturday of September in college football already and we start in earnest to dig deeper into conference play.

Take a few minutes to see and understand what could be solid values for college football picks.

PLAY NOW: $25,000 Free-To-Play NFL Contest: BMR’s 2022 Pick’Em Pool Opens for Registration


Duke Blue Devils vs. Kansas Jayhawks

Saturday, September 24, 2022 – 12:00 PM EDT at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium

We are confused. It’s September and Duke and Kansas are both 3-0. We didn’t think these teams played each other until November 15th. Oh, this is football, not basketball, that makes more sense, kind of.

If you are as baffled by this as we are, it is not surprising. Duke's betting odds for a season win total was 3. And Kansas has already surpassed theirs because it was 2.5.

What has happened, coaches Mike Elko of the Blue Devils and Lance Leipold of the Jayhawks went to their respective jobs not just to hold the seat for the next guy, but to change the trajectory of the programs.


What to Watch in This Peculiar Unbeaten Matchup

Both teams have excellent running games at over 200 yards per contest.

Duke throws the pigskin a little better (255 vs. 194 YPG), however, that has come against far lesser competition, as Kansas has won on the road at West Virginia and Houston.

The Dukies won last season 52-33 at home as 16.5-point favorites. 

Based on who the Jayhawks have upset, they are a rather large 7.5-point home favorite. However, in the last decade when Kansas was favored against an FBS foe, they are 0-6 ATS with one victory.

NCAAF Pick: Duke +7.5 (-115) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

Bookmaker logo
Duke +7.5 (-115)
Visit Site

Navy Midshipmen vs. East Carolina Pirates

Saturday, September 24, 2022 - 06:00 PM EDT at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium

Since posting an 11-2 record in 2019, the juice has come out of the Navy program with 3-7 and 4-8 seasons respectively, to go along with 0-2 to begin 2022. What’s changed?

After annually being a Top 5 rushing offense in the country with their option attack, they were 52nd in 2020 and 9th last year. This season, coach Ken Niumatalolo's club comes into this AAC contest at just 44th.

When you are averaging about 200 yards on the ground, while completing less than half your pass attempts for just 117 yards a game, you cannot win games, needing to be closer to 280 YPG or more on the ground.


Navy Should Have Confidence, but Do They Have the Skill?

East Carolina is 2-1 and 3-0 ATS and they should be undefeated, missing a golden opportunity to knock off N.C. State in the opener.

The Pirates are only 1-7 ATS vs. the Midshipmen with two wins since they became conference rivals.

While the Navy should run for a few more yards against ECU, the Pirates' passing offense can definitely exploit the Middies' lack of speed in the secondary to win by 20 or more points.

NCAAF Pick: East Carolina -16.5 (-108) at Bookmaker

Bookmaker logo
East Carolina -16.5 (-108)
Visit Site

Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Texas A&M Aggies

Saturday, September 24, 2022 - 07:00 PM EDT at AT&T Stadium

This annual SEC showdown known in some circles as the "Southwest Classic" finds Texas A&M seeking revenge after seeing their nine-game win streak snapped between these rivals, with the Aggies falling 20-10 as 5.5-point favorites.

Other than moving the 2020 matchup because of Covid, these squads have met in Arlington since 2014, as a college football showcase showdown at Jerry’s World.

Even with a 9-1 SU run, it wasn’t like Arkansas rolled over and is 6-4 ATS in those battles.


Where Aggies Run Into Trouble

Texas A&M was ranked No. 6 before being upset by Appalachian State 17-14 and followed that up with another low-scoring affair vs. then No. 12 Miami-FL 17-9. The Aggies are listed 109th in total offense and scoring just past 20 PPG.

The Texas A&M defense is stout, however, they permit 4.0 yards a carry which is 76th nationally and Arkansas brings in the No. 10 rushing offense which is very physical.

The Razorbacks can run and throw, positioned at No. 18 in total offense.

No doubt the Hogs' defense is not to the level of the Aggies, but they have so many more ways to score. Following the NCAAF odds, let’s take the points with Arkansas.

NCAAF Pick: Arkansas +1.5 (-110) at Bookmaker

Bookmaker logo
Arkansas +1.5 (-110)
Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.