NCAAF Championship Weekend Best Bets for Saturday: Betting the AAC and MWC Title Games

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A couple of rematches make up the title games in the American Athletic and Mountain West Conferences, and we’ve got free NCAAF picks for both matchups.

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UCF Knights vs. Tulane Green Wave

Saturday, December 3, 2022 – 04:00 PM EST at Yulman Stadium

Having the top 25 teams in the American Athletic Conference Championship is becoming normal with this season marking the 6th time in 8 seasons for both participants to be ranked, and there’s the added bonus of revenge when the UCF Knights and Tulane Green Wave collide in New Orleans.

By virtue of finishing first in the AAC standings, No. 19 Tulane earned home-field advantage in the contest and will be seeking revenge after No. 22 UCF denied the Green Wave a chance to go undefeated in the regular season.

Tulane Green Making 1st Appearance in AAC Championship

That home-field advantage is a huge factor in why Tulane is showing up as the favorite, with early action on the Green Wave pushing them from 2-point chalk to 3.5 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review). Saturday’s scoreboard target is 56.5-57 at most outlets.

Both the spread and the total are a little higher than when the squads met on the same field in Week 11. The Knights enjoyed a big start with 17 first-quarter points, and the Green Wave was never able to catch up in a 38-31 final that serves as Tulane’s only conference loss of the season.

UCF Slip into Game via Tiebreaker

Neither team secured its entry into the title game until last week. The Knights suffered an upset loss to Navy 2 weeks ago, a game they were favored by more than 2 touchdowns and the Midshipmen won despite not completing a pass, and UCF then survived a late rally attempt at USF in Week 13.

Tulane had a tough assignment this past week with a road trip to defending league champ Cincinnati, and the Green Wave needed a late touchdown to get past the Bearcats 27-24.

The Pick

There’s a 40% chance the fans inside Yulman Stadium are going to get wet Saturday afternoon, and if it doesn’t rain, it’s still going to be typical New Orleans weather with muggy temps in the low-70s.

Ride the Green Wave in this one as Tulane takes it 33-23.

NCAAF Pick: Tulane -3.5 (-103) at BetOnline

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Tulane -3.5 (-103)
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Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Boise State Broncos

Saturday, December 3, 2022 - 04:00 PM EST at Albertsons Stadium

We’ve become accustomed to seeing the Mountain West Championship played on the blue turf at Albertsons Stadium, and we’ve gotten used to seeing at least one (if not both) of the participants in the title game be the Fresno State Bulldogs and Boise State Broncos.

We get both the Bulldogs and Broncos this year, the 4th time in the 10-year history of the contest for that pair to collide, and the numbers at the best sportsbooks point to a closely-fought rematch of a meeting on the second Saturday of October.

Boise State Favored on Smurf Turf

A quick check of BMR’s live college football odds finds most shops forcing Boise State bettors to begin the contest with a field goal in the hole. After it first went out at 51 points, the total has been steadily rising and was up to 54 by midweek.

That spread is about a third of what it was when Fresno State came to Boise in Week 6, and it was a back-and-forth match for the first 36 minutes or so with the Bulldogs and Broncos knotted 20-apiece midway through the third quarter.

Boise State then caught fire to close the game with 20 unanswered points and a 40-20 win. The victory was the Broncos’ 2nd-straight in the rivalry and left them with a 17-7 advantage in the series while the final score halted a string of six consecutive ‘under’ winners.

Fresno State on 7-Game Win Streak

Fresno State didn’t let that loss crash the campaign, and the Bulldogs have run off seven consecutive wins since falling to Boise State while covering the NCAAF odds in five of those triumphs. Jeff Tedford’s squad also reaches the title tilt in good health.

The Bulldogs did not have the services of starting quarterback Jake Haener in the loss to the Broncos, and the senior has been outstanding the last 4 weeks with 10 TD passes and no interceptions.

Boise State, on the other hand, is banged up on both sides of the football, especially at receiver with wideouts Stefan Cobbs and Cole Wright questionable along with tight end Riley Smith. The Broncos are also thin in the defensive backfield due to some nagging injuries.

The Pick

A quick check of the forecast for Saturday afternoon finds partly cloudy skies, temps hovering in the mid-30s, and no chance of any type of precipitation.

A good day to have the hot chocolate concession and a good day to lay the field goal on the Broncos in a 30-24 final.

NCAAF Pick: Boise State -3 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Boise State -3 (-108)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.