Navy vs. Army Best Bets for Saturday: Will Black Knights be Able to Rock the Boat?

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Tyrell Robinson #21 of the Army Black Knights celebrates a catch against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. Eakin Howard/Getty Images/AFP.

The annual Army/Navy game is here and the service academies will be battling at the Linc, home of the Philadelphia Eagles. Let’s check out the NCAAF odds and analyze this matchup as we look to keep cashing our college football picks!

Navy Midshipmen vs. Army Black Knights

Saturday, December 10, 2022 – 03:00 PM EST at Lincoln Financial Field

Navy Looking Sharp

Navy ended their season in fearsome fashion as they defeated the 20th ranked team in the nation by the score of 17-14, rewarding all of those who bet the Midshipmen +14 ½, and more importantly, those who dared to dream and bet the Middies +520 moneyline road dogs over UCF at Maryland betting sites.

In that upset victory, Navy owned a 39:36 time of possession time versus UCF’s 20:24, and their defense was immense. Navy linebacker, John Marshall, was a force of nature in this game, registering four sacks, bringing his season sack attack to 10 ½, and setting a school record.

The Knights switched quarterbacks in the second half but it didn’t make much of a difference. Marshall stated after the game, “We knew Plumlee was really dynamic with his legs but he was not as capable as a thrower as Mikey Keene was. So, we had the mentality that this guy is probably not going to get out of the pocket as much. Two different ballplayers, but I think we were able to get to both effectively.”

Winning Ground Game

As is the Navy way, their offense was strictly a ground-and-pound with junior quarterback, Xavier Arline, making only one pass attempt but rushing for 24 yards on 18 carries and one touchdown. In total, the Midshipmen had no passing yards but 248 rushing led by sophomore, Daba Fofana, who had 114 yards on 20 carries.

“I feel like if we get off to a fast start, we’re a hard team to beat, just the nature of our offense and the way our defense is playing,” Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo said. “I think that was huge for us to get off to a good start against these guys. We didn’t give them any momentum, even though they moved the ball.”

Army Gunning for 3rd Consecutive Win

Army picked up their second win in a row with a 44-7 thrashing of the lowly U Mass Minutemen. The truth be told, U Mass resembles much more of an FCS than an FBS team, anchored with a 1-11 record and whose only win was against a last-place FCS team, Stony Brook College.

The Black Knights racked up 329 yards on the ground led by senior quarterback, Tyhier Tyler, who ran for 101 yards on 11 carries and three touchdowns.

Naturally, Army’s air attack resembled more of a mild affront as Tyler made only two passing attempts, connecting on both of them for 67 yards. The Knights’ defense held U Mass to just 235 combined yards and had two interceptions.

Team Trends

  • Navy is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Navy is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.
  • Navy is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
  • Navy is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
  • Army is 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Army is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. AAC teams.

Total Trends

  • Under has gone 10-0 in the last 10 meetings between these schools.
  • Under is 5-1 in Navy’s last 6 games following a straight-up win.
  • Under is 5-1 in Navy’s last 6 non-conference games.
  • Under is 21-5 in Navy’s last 26 games in December.
  • Under is 5-1 in Army’s last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
  • Under is 5-1 in Army’s last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.

Navy vs. Army: Game Prediction

We won’t see much, if any, passing in this game which always bodes well for the total going Under. As we can see, the oddsmakers have yet to post a total low enough to get any of the Over bettors to cash as the last 10 games have gone under the posted total. And I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens yet again.

There is no need to discuss the passing attacks of either of these teams as they don’t really exist as evidenced by Navy’s 129th and Army’s 130th-ranked passing offense.

However, these schools have been attacking on the ground for decades and this upcoming matchup will be no different. Navy ranks 7th in rushing, averaging 239.5 yards per game, while Army checks in at No. 2 in the nation, chewing up 304.3 yards per contest.

But the defense is a much different story. Navy has one and Army does not. The Middies rank No. 4 against the run while the Knights rank No. 116th. This is why the opening line has tumbled from Army -1 ½ to a pick as of this Monday morning writing. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Navy installed as the favorite at kickoff.

The Pick

That’s all I need to know as this game looks like another round of Navy and the under.

Score Prediction: Navy 20 – Army 9

NCAAF Pick: Navy PK (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Navy PK (-108)
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NCAAF Pick: Under 33 ½ (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Under 33 ½ (-115)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.