Another big week came as our adjustments to the early season slate have worked. We’re settling into form as the midway point of the schedule arrives. October means big plays and matchups all over the country. Finally, Week 6 is heavy on top matchups. This isn’t a bad thing for bettors.
We’re looking to play the smaller games that oddsmakers have overlooked but we can still play bigger games if the lines are right. Check out our breakdown of each of our top plays.
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Saturday, October 9, 2021 – 7:00 PM EDT at Jones AT&T Stadium
TCU has somehow pulled off an 0-3-1 ATS record thus far, but I’m not buying this team as that snakebitten. They’ve narrowly missed covering in three of their games, and are clearly a better team than Texas Tech. The Red Raiders earned too much credit for beating an overrated West Virginia squad last week.
Gary Patterson’s defense has disappointed but they can force turnovers on an inexperienced Red Raiders backup passer. With both star playmakers Erik Ezukanma and Tahj Brooks possibly on the shelf for this battle in addition to Tyler Shough, I’m giving TCU the nod.
NCAAF Pick: Over 61 (-105) with BetOnline
Boise State Broncos vs. BYU Cougars
Saturday, October 9, 2021 - 3:30 PM EDT at LaVell Edwards Stadium
I’m not sure how anyone could look at this matchup and see Boise State this close of a competitor to BYU. The Cougars may not have the same passing attack without Zach Wilson, but their rushing game is excellent. Boise is one of the worst run defenses in the nation, and powerful tailback Tyler Allgeier is bound to dominate.
Of course, the wildcard is Boise State’s passing game. They rank 17th in the country, and BYU’s pass defense is a bottom-30 unit. But the film doesn’t really confirm either, and I think that plays out in a low-scoring affair.
NCAAF Pick: BYU -5.5 (-110) with BetOnline
NCAAF Pick: Under 56.5 (-105) with BetOnline
Florida State Seminoles vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
Saturday, October 9, 3:30 PM EDT at Kenan Memorial Stadium
I continue to bet against Florida State and the money is rolling in. The Seminoles are one of the worst Power 5 rosters in the country and their coaching staff has been overmatched during the development phase. The only positive this program has going for it is their powerful run game.
North Carolina will exploit their terrible defense en route to a blowout win. Sam Howell has been magnificent since Week 1, and the Tar Heels can clamp down on the Seminoles’ offense to help get the cover and the under.
NCAAF Pick: UNC -17 (-110) with BetOnline
NCAAF Pick: Under 64 (-102) with BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.