Mississippi St. vs. Ole Miss Week 13 Picks & Predictions: Can Ole Miss Get Back on Track?

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It was only a few weeks ago when Ole Miss was in the CFP conversation, but two consecutive losses have seen them tumble to 20th in the nation.

Can they regroup in their regular season finale against their intrastate rivals? Let’s check out the college football odds and analyze this matchup as we look to keep cashing our college football picks!

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Ole Miss Rebels

Thursday, November 24, 2022 – 07:00 PM EST at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium

Mississippi State had a cupcake in the penultimate game on their regular-season schedule. And it came at a good time considering the Bulldogs got completely outclassed by the No. 1 team in the nation the week before in a 45-19 loss to Georgia. Getting a subpar FCS opponent as a tune-up to taking on their ancient rivals from Oxford in the Egg Bowl was just what the doctor ordered.

The oddsmakers installed Miss State as a whopping 39-point home favorite over East Tennessee State and they did not disappoint their fans or their backers. Junior quarterback Will Rogers eviscerated the ETSU secondary by completing 30-of-37 passes for 307 yards and five touchdowns. Jo'quavious Marks led all runners with 58 yards on just five carries including a 22-yard scamper into the end zone to make it 35-0 at the end of the half.

The Bulldogs’ defense was flawless, as the only score ETSU got was at the end of the game off a blocked punt that was returned for a touchdown. Mississippi State had three interceptions and controlled all aspects of the game in their 56-7 victory.

Rebels Reeling

Perhaps we should have seen Ole Miss’ loss last week to Arkansas coming. After all, the Rebels held a 24-17 third-quarter lead over Nick Saban’s revered Crimson Tide before they melted like butter in a blast furnace. When the dust settled, the Rebels watched their touchdown lead slip away into a 30-24 setback to Bama.

After snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, the Rebels were woefully unprepared last week as the Razorbacks jetted to a 42-6 lead at the end of the third quarter. However, the Rebels’ offense finally opened their eyes long enough to make it a somewhat respectable 42-27 loss as one-point road favorites.

Sophomore quarterback, Jaxson Dart, has been held to just two passing touchdowns over his last two starts and last week was nothing to write home about as he went 21-of-36 for 240 yards with one touchdown and one pick.

However, the Rebels rushing attack was relentless, piling up a whopping 463 yards with Quinshon Judkins and Zach Evans combining for 421 of those yards and a touchdown apiece. Malik Heath led all receivers with 140 yards and a touchdown.

Team Trends

  • Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
  • Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
  • Rebels are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Rebels are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games.
  • Rebels are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

Total Trends

  • Under is 6-0 in the Rebels’ last 6 Thursday games.
  • Under is 4-0 in the Rebels’ last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Under is 6-1 in the Rebels’ last 7 games in November.
  • Under is 5-0 in the Bulldogs’ last 5 road games.

Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss: Pick and Prediction

It’s no secret that Ole Miss has grounded and pounded their way to success this season with the 3rd ranked rushing attack, averaging 278.3 yards per game, and they will likely do the same against Miss State on Thursday.

And while the Bulldogs own a rather anemic rushing game (129th) they do have a prolific passing attack ranked 9th in the nation, averaging over 320 yards per game and led by junior quarterback Will Rogers, who has 32 passing touchdowns to just 5 interceptions and 3,474 yards through the air this year.

These teams score just about the same number of points, with Mississippi State averaging 33.5 while Ole Miss averages 35.3 points per game. They just do it in vastly different ways. The Bulldogs score through the air while the Rebels use their rushing attack like a battering ram.

But in a game in which we have two similarly talented teams, I can’t help but notice the attractive line we are getting at one industry stalwart. While all of the other major offshore shops are dealing Ole Miss as a 3-point home favorite, we can get Mississippi State +3½ at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review). Ole Miss has been a bit of a mess over the last few weeks, so let’s grab the points and watch this game go low, as it has the last five times these teams have met.

Score Prediction: Ole Miss 30 – Mississippi State 29

NCAAF Pick: Mississippi State +3½ (-115) at Bookmaker

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Mississippi State +3½ (-115)
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NCAAF Pick: Under 63½ (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Under 63½ (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.