Minnesota vs. Penn State: NCAAF Week 8 Odds and Pick

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Tanner Morgan #2 of the Minnesota Golden Gophers hands the ball off to Mohamed Ibrahim #24 during warm-up before the game against the Illinois Fighting Illini. Justin Casterline/Getty Images/AFP.

A battle of Big Ten rivals will take center stage on Saturday night when Minnesota travels to Happy Valley to meet the Nittany Lions of Penn State.

Let’s check out the college football odds from our top-rated sportsbooks, analyze this matchup, and keep cashing our NCAAF picks!

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Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions

Saturday, October 22, 2022 – 07:30 PM EDT at Beaver Stadium

Minnesota’s early schedule was littered with cupcakes and it wasn’t until the Golden Gophers met Michigan State in their fourth game of the season that they were tasked with their first real test. Installed as three-point road favorites, Minnesota made short work of the Spartans and left East Lansing with a 34-7 victory.

However, the euphoria was short-lived as the Gophers experienced their first straight-up and ATS loss of the season when they fell to Purdue, 20-10, as nine-point home chalk. It was a sobering setback as Minnesota had to take to the highway and battle Illinois the following week.

Minny was installed as 4 ½ point road favorites last week, but it was the Illini that took charge of the game. The Minnesota passing attack was more akin to a mild affront as Tanner Morgan and Athan Kaliakmanis combined for 6-of-18 passing for 38 passing yards, no touchdowns, and 3 interceptions.

Senior running back, Mohamed Ibrahim, was the only saving grace for a sputtering Gopher offense as he racked up 127 rushing yards on 15 carries including a touchdown. When the curtain closed, Minnesota suffered a 26-14 loss and must now regroup to meet powerhouse Penn State.


Lions Tamed at the Big House

Last week’s marquee matchup between Penn State and Michigan lived up to the hype in the first half. The Wolverines were up by just two points at halftime. And it looked as though the seesaw battle would continue when the Nittany Lions took a 17-16 lead early in the third, courtesy of a 27-yard field goal off the foot of Jake Pinegar.

But that’s when it all went downhill for Penn State as Michigan would not quit and eventually wore down the visitors. There just wasn’t enough kick in the Lions’ offensive engine to keep pace with Michigan as Sean Clifford and Drew Allar combined for only 157 passing yards and no touchdowns while the ground game garnered 111 rushing yards with Clifford leading the way with 74 of those yards.

But the true tale of the game was Michigan’s massive offensive line overwhelming Penn State’s relatively small defensive front. The Wolverines punished Penn State on the ground, piling up a whopping 418 yards and accounting for all four of their touchdowns.

"It hurts any time a team rushes for that amount of yards," Penn State defensive tackle PJ Mustipher said. "As a defensive line, we pride ourselves on stopping the run and we didn't do that."

Team Trends

  • Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Minnesota is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games.
  • Minnesota is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
  • Penn State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
  • Penn State is 6-20-2 ATS in their last 28 games following a straight-up loss.

Total Trends

  • Under is 3-0-1 in Minnesota’s last 4 conference games.
  • Under is 4-1-1 in Minnesota’s last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 6-2 in Minnesota’s last 8 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Under is 6-1 in Penn State’s last 7 home games.
  • Under is 5-1 in Penn State’s last 6 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.


Minnesota vs. Penn State: Pick and Prediction

Penn State is a public team which means the masses will blindly bet on them regardless of what the stats and trends are telling them. But then again, the average college football bettor doesn’t take the time to research the games they are betting which is why they are like sheep to the slaughter and the bookies get fat off their dime.

But I am here to say that Penn State got exposed last week and Minnesota has a solid rushing attack that ranks 16th in the nation, averaging 227.8 yards per game. On the other side of the ball, Penn State’s passing game averages just 235.3 yards per game (74th) but Minnesota’s passing defense is ranked fifth in the nation and should have no problem limiting the Lions’ aerial attack.

I believe this game will be close and I also feel Minnesota overlooked Illinois last week as they were looking ahead to this showdown at Happy Valley. Expect the Gophers to be ready to hang within the margins and watch this game to go low.

Score Prediction: Penn State 21 - Minnesota 17

NCAAF Pick: Minnesota +6 (-114) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

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Minnesota +6 (-114)
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NCAAF Pick: Under 44 ½ (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Under 44 ½ (-108)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.