Michigan vs. Ohio State NCAAF Week 13 Top Picks: Wolverines Have Big Dog Value

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Jake Moody #13 of the Michigan Wolverines celebrates his game winning field goal with J.J. McCarthy #9 to beat the Illinois Fighting Illini. Gregory Shamus/Getty Images/AFP.

The Michigan Wolverines are the sharp NCAAF picks for Saturday’s matchup with the Ohio State Buckeyes, and they’re not our only bet!

For residents of the Great Lakes State looking to bet on this game, you can check out our top Michigan betting sites.

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Michigan Wolverines vs. Ohio State Buckeyes

Saturday, November 26, 2022 – 12:00 PM EST at Ohio Stadium

What You Should Know

There are rivalry games, and then there’s The Game. The Ohio State Buckeyes and Michigan Wolverines have faced each other almost every year since 1897, alternating sites between Columbus and Ann Arbor; they’ll meet at the Horseshoe this Saturday for one of their most important matchups in that 125-year span.

The Buckeyes (11-0 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) will presumably come into this contest as the No. 2 team in the College Football Playoff rankings after all the top 4 seeds made it through Week 12 without a scratch. Michigan (11-0 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) is close behind at No. 3.

Well, maybe not that close. The Wolverines are also 8-point road dogs on the NCAAF odds board at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review), up from +7.5 at the open. There’s no question Ohio State is the better team on paper, but 8 points? That’s just too good to pass up for our Week 13 college football picks.

Unless we head over to GTbets (visit our GTbets Review) and take Michigan to win outright at +250. Both of those picks have merit to them; we’ll take a moment to do some comparison shopping, then we’ll find an additional tasty bet for this matchup.

Doesn't Ohio State Always Beat Michigan?

It seems that way sometimes. Actually, the Wolverines lead this lifetime series 59-51-6 once you remove their 37-7 loss in 2010, with the Buckeyes forced to vacate all their victories from that season. Shame on you, Jim Tressel, for allowing your players to get free tattoos in exchange for their autographs.

Ohio State has definitely lorded it over Michigan since we entered the new millennium. The Buckeyes are 16-3 SU and 12-7 ATS versus the Maize and Blue dating back to 2001, again excluding that 2010 matchup.

If you ignore their one season under interim head coach Luke Fickell in 2011, the Buckeyes have enjoyed a relatively unbroken succession from Tressel to Urban Meyer, and from Meyer to his right-hand man Ryan Day in 2018. Michigan, on the other hand, went off the rails in 2008 when they hired Rich Rodriguez to take over for the retired Lloyd Carr.

The Wolverines bounced back in 2011 after they ditched Rodriguez for Brady Hoke, but that revival didn’t last long. Life has been much better since former Michigan QB Jim Harbaugh returned to his alma mater in 2015, although they’re still just 1-5 SU and 3-3 ATS at The Game during his tenure.

Didn’t Michigan Beat Ohio State Last Year?

They sure did. The Wolverines were 6.5-point home dogs when they beat OSU 42-27, with RB Hassan Haskins rumbling for 169 yards and 5 touchdowns. The win propelled Michigan to the Big Ten title and an eventual CFP berth, knocking Ohio State out of playoff contention in the process.

This is a different Wolverines team, though. Blake Corum has taken over for Haskins (now with the Tennessee Titans) as the lead tailback, and Michigan’s offense has suffered just a bit, falling from No. 10 to No. 11 on the F+ charts at Football Outsiders. More importantly, the Wolverines' defense has improved from No. 11 to No. 3 since last year.

Ohio State’s defense has made even bigger strides, moving from 31st overall to No. 2 on the F+ charts, while their offense has slipped from first to second. But the Wolverines have improved enough overall to make them the right choice for Saturday's NCAAF picks.

Should I Bet the Point Spread or the Moneyline?

At these prices, either one would be fine. Wizard of Odds says that +8 on the point spread is about the same as +255 on the moneyline, so I guess we’ll stick with the spread, where the models we’re looking at suggest the Wolverines are worth a proper one-unit bet.

For our second bet, that 57-point total at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review) looks a bit too tight for our liking, so we’re going back to the NCAAF props market, where we’ve had recent success hammering the Under on both Total Passing Touchdowns and Total Receiving Yards.

That first prop saw us take Under 2.5 TD passes on Buckeyes QB C.J. Stroud when he faced Northwestern back in Week 10. Final score: Ohio State 21, Northwestern 7, with Stroud failing to find the end zone.

We don’t have the odds for this prop as we go to press, but we do know it’ll be raining off and on in Columbus this weekend, so we’re willing to throw at least a fun-sized bet at the Under.

Bet accordingly when the NCAAF player props hit the board, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

NCAAF Pick: Michigan +8 (-108) at Heritage Sports

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Michigan +8 (-108)
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NCAAF Prop Pick: C.J. Stroud Under 2.5 TD Passes (-113) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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C.J. Stroud Under 2.5 TD Passes (-113)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.