MACtion Tuesday NCAAF Week 12 Best Bets: Can Bowling Green Earn Massive Upset on Road vs. Toledo?

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Tuesday’s slate will feature two MAC games.

Two teams could earn bowl eligibility with wins. The other two teams can keep themselves in 1st place in their respective divisions in the MAC.

What can we expect in Tuesday’s matchups for our NCAAF picks?

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Bowling Green Falcons vs. Toledo Rockets

Tuesday, November 15, 2022 – 07:00 PM EST at The Glass Bowl

Teams Analysis

Toledo Rockets

Although the Bowling Green Falcons are 5-5 on the season, they’re heading to Toledo with the spread sitting at +15.5.

The Toledo Rockets are currently 7-2 on the year and certainly the better team. But is the spread still too high? The Rockets have won 4 of their last 5 games. The offense is averaging 406.9 yards per game with 35.1 points per game.

Dequan Finn is back in the starting lineup for the Rockets. He threw for 301 yards and 3 touchdowns in Toledo’s win against Ball State. On the season, Finn has nearly 2,000 yards passing with 21 touchdowns. However, he’s also thrown 10 interceptions and has a QBR of 67.4.

The offense has been electric despite the turnovers. But for Toledo, the defense stands out even more. The defense has held teams to under 180 yards passing per game. And although they've allowed 161 yards per game on the ground, the run defense is also outstanding.

Everything about the Toledo defense is top-notch if we’re being honest. They’re just in a conference with a lot of scoring ability on offense.

Bowling Green Falcons

Meanwhile, Bowling Green has won 3 of their last 4 games. They ended up losing last week to Kent State, 40-6. That’s practically why the Falcons are major underdogs in this game.

Matt McDonald has earned over 2,000 yards passing with 17 touchdowns and just 4 interceptions. If McDonald can limit the turnovers, Bowling Green will have a chance at earning an upset.

He’s been sacked at least 3 times in the Falcons’ last 5 games and doesn’t have the best offensive line. However, the defense has given up 418.2 yards per game, with over 250 yards in the air and over 160 yards on the ground. The Falcons are missing tackles but ultimately don’t have a terrible defense.


The Pick

There’s potential for Bowling Green to win the turnover battle. If they can do that, they’ll be in this game.

Let’s take all the points with Bowling Green at the best sportsbooks.

NCAAF Pick: Bowling Green +15.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Bowling Green +15.5 (-110)
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Ohio Bobcats vs. Ball State Cardinals

Tuesday, November 15, 2022 - 07:00 PM EST at Scheumann Stadium

The Ohio Bobcats have been cruising, with 5 straight wins. Now, they’ll take on a Ball State team looking to become bowl eligible.

Teams Analysis

Ball State Cardinals

The Ball State Cardinals have lost 2 of their last 3 games, but the 2 losses were by 1 possession. The Cardinals have scored 24.4 points per game on 384.2 yards. They’ve averaged over 150 yards on the ground and are getting 233.3 yards in the air per game.

They’re led by John Paddock, who has a QBR of 30.5 with 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions at quarterback this season.

The run game has been more potent under Carson Steele, who has rushed for 12 touchdowns on 249 attempts. He’s already earned 1,280 yards on the season and has averaged 5.1 yards per carry. That’s impressive, with nearly 250 carries on the season.

Defensively, the Ball State Cardinals have allowed 401.7 yards per game, but only the pass rush is a bit inconsistent. The rest of the defense has played pretty well, despite allowing 184.4 yards per game on the ground. This defense is capable of getting stops. They’ve allowed 27.3 points per game on the season.

Ohio Bobcats

On the other hand, Ohio is 7-3 on the year, but they've allowed 32 points per game. The Bobcats have also scored 33.8 points per contest.

Kurtis Rourke has led the Bobcats with 3,087 yards. He’s thrown 24 touchdowns and has just 4 interceptions on the season. His QBR is currently at 71.7, which is the 33rd-best in college football.

Rourke has some great receivers to throw the ball to, including Sam Wiglusz, who didn’t perform well last week. Still, he has 9 touchdowns on 59 receptions for 714 yards. Look out for the senior.

Of course, Ohio’s defense is the problem this season. They’ve played better as of late, holding their last 4 teams to 24 points or fewer, but they’ve missed plenty of tackles and don’t have a great secondary. The pass rush is sometimes effective, but the run defense is also average, allowing 148.8 yards per game.


The Pick

Ohio scores over 33 points per game and allows over 32 points per game.

Taking the Over in the Bobcats’ games has been profitable. Let’s go for it again at the NCAAF odds!

NCAAF Pick: Over 53 (-110) at BetOnline

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Over 53 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.