LSU vs. Texas A&M NCAAF Week 13 Pick and Prediction: Tigers on the Cusp of the CFP

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Josh Williams #27 of the LSU Tigers runs the ball against the Arkansas Razorbacks. Wesley Hitt/Getty Images/AFP.

LSU is ranked No. 5 in the nation but if they win on Saturday and subsequently shock Georgia in the SEC Championship game, they will be invited to compete on college football’s grandest stage.

Let’s check out the college football odds and analyze this matchup as we look to keep cashing our college football picks!

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LSU Tigers vs. Texas A&M Aggies

Saturday, November 26, 2022 – 07:00 PM EST at Kyle Field

LSU (9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS) proved they belonged with the big boys when they stunned Alabama, 32-31, in overtime and brought home a huge moneyline return of somewhere in the neighborhood of +400 for those bold enough to eschew the 13.5-point head start.

Last week, they kept their winning wagon rolling with a 41-10 thrashing of UAB, easily covering the 15-point impost. Quarterback, Jayden Daniels, was dynamic through the air and on the ground. The 6’3” junior was a surgical 22-of-29 with 297 yards and one passing touchdown while running for 111 yards on a dozen carries and notching a rushing touchdown.

Junior tailback, Noah Cain, had 3 rushing touchdowns while John Emery Jr. drew first blood with a first-quarter two-yard touchdown plunge. The LSU defense shut down the UAB rushing attack, limiting the Blazers to 48 yards while surrendering only 211 yards through the air and no touchdowns.

Texas A&M Snap Skid

The Aggies were favored by 33 points over the woeful UMass Minutemen but didn’t come close to covering that big number last week. However, a win is a win and when you are on a six-game losing streak, any good news is welcome. When the dust settled in College Station, Texas A&M walked away with a 20-3 victory but it wasn’t pretty.

Aggies coach Jimbo Fisher said, "The kids played their hearts out and they play tough ... and they did the things they had to do to win the game."

Conner Weigman was 11-of-19 for 191 yards and a touchdown while the rushing attack chewed up 213 yards and added a touchdown. Nevertheless, it was a mistake-scarred performance for A&M as they lost 4 fumbles and played sloppily throughout the afternoon. But it’s nothing new to a team that is currently 4-7 (3-7-1 ATS) and has wildly underwhelmed given their No. 6 preseason ranking.

If you are a Lone Star State resident looking to bet on this game, you can check out our top Texas betting sites.

Total Trends

  • Under is 6-1 in the Tigers’ last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Under is 4-1 in the Tigers’ last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Under is 8-3 in the Tigers’ last 11 games following an ATS win.
  • Under is 4-0 in the Aggies’ last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Under is 5-1 in the Aggies’ last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
  • Under is 5-1 in the Aggies’ last 6 games following an ATS loss.

LSU vs. Texas A&M: Game Prediction

LSU has won 8 of the last 10 meetings with Texas A&M and has covered every single one! The Tigers have everything at stake in this visit to College Station and I would think they are fully focused on the task at hand and not their SEC title tilt with Georgia next week.

But here’s the thing. LSU is a very good team that does everything well but nothing spectacular. As an example, the Tigers are 34th in points scored and 26th in points allowed. Conversely, Texas A&M is 33rd in points allowed but 103rd in points scored proving the Aggies boast a solid defense but an anemic offense that has plagued them throughout the season.

But one thing A&M does better than all but 2 teams in the nation is defending the pass. They are ranked 3rd in that category which should put a crimp in the LSU aerial attack. But all the Tigers have to do is hand the ball to their talented backs who will gash the Aggies’ 123rd-ranked run-stop unit, surrendering an average of 211 yards per game.

Once the running game gets into gear it will set up the pass for LSU’s Jayden Daniels and he can go to work on the secondary and hit the short stuff over the middle. The bottom line is that Texas A&M can’t score, to begin with, but against a stout Tigers’ defense this game has all the makings of a blowout.

Final Picks

The only caveat is that LSU may be looking ahead to their game against Georgia but Brian Kelly is an excellent coach and I would be shocked if he doesn’t have his team locked, loaded, and ready to rumble.

Lay the lumber and go low at the best sportsbooks, as A&M won’t be putting many points on the board.

Score Prediction: LSU 30 - Texas A&M 13

NCAAF Pick: LSU -9.5 (-112) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

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LSU -9.5 (-112)
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NCAAF Pick: Under 48 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Under 48 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.