LSU vs. Arkansas NCAAF Week 11 Best Bets: A Long Day Ahead for Arkansas

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Trey Palmer #33 of the LSU Tigers catches the ball as Greg Brooks Jr. #9 of the Arkansas Razorbacks defends. Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images/AFP.

The Tigers are atop the division at 7-2, 5-1 after beating Alabama. Arkansas is 5-4, 2-3 after a shocking home loss to Liberty.

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LSU Tigers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks

Saturday, November 12, 2022 – 12:00 PM EST at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium

Will two SEC West division rivals continue on their current trajectories, or will the momentum shift when LSU travels to Fayetteville to meet Arkansas?

The Tigers are coming off of their biggest win of the season, knocking off hate Alabama, 32-31 in overtime. They have won three straight and stand atop the division at 7-2, 5-1, a half-game ahead of Ole Miss.

Arkansas, meanwhile, is coming off of its worst loss of the season, getting upset at home by Liberty, 21-19. The Razorbacks are 5-4, 2-3 in the league and in fifth place.

With a game against No. 11 Ole Miss next week, Arkansas is also looking at needing a win in its season finale at Missouri to become bowl eligible, unless it can pull an upset before then.


Trap Game?

Brian Kelly has LSU flying high in his first year as head coach of the Tigers. The former Notre Dame coach has the Tigers playing their best football since their national championship season of 2019.

LSU has beaten top 10 divisional foes in their last two games, toppling then No. 7 Ole Miss before the Alabama game. The Tigers now find themselves in the top 10 as well.

LSU also has hopes of finding its way into the College Football Playoff despite two losses on the year. They’ll need to win out, take the division and likely win the SEC Championship Game to do it, but according to top-rated sportsbooks, the plans hinge on a win at Arkansas to keep things rolling forward.

LSU will lean on its run game. Running back Armoni Goodwin is still working his way into shape after missing extended time with an injury, and he has the luxury of taking his time as he rejoins a crew of running backs that have averaged 185 yards on the ground in recent weeks.

Running Option

The Tigers might get a boost in the run game with the return of tackle Garrett Dellinger, who has missed a month with a broken hand. Kelly said the lineman “looked good. Much better. I think he is in a great position that he could play this weekend.”

Kelly also downplayed the threat of a trap game or a letdown after two emotional wins.

“I've never bought into that because I think if it's a trap game, you have not done a very good job with your football team,” he said. “They know that Arkansas is an SEC opponent that beat them last year."

'It becomes a trap game if you're not thinking right, and we'll get our guys thinking the right way, and we'll prepare the right way. This is about consistency. If they want to be a consistent program, they'll think the right way about this game.”


Razorbacks Reeling

As if the loss to Liberty on homecoming wasn’t crushing enough for Arkansas, the team also had to contend with legal problems immediately after the game.

Coach Sam Pittman announced that defensive backs Myles Slusher and Anthony Brown were suspended for this week’s game after being arrested following a confrontation with Fayetteville police hours after the game.

Pittman was also critical of his team, saying that the coaching staff tried to motivate them for Liberty and that the Razorbacks had “all kinds of reasons to win.” He challenged the team’s lack of leaders on the roster, saying it had come ‘by committee’ so far this season.

The offensive line had a bad day, and quarterback KJ Jefferson is battling injury, so there’s a recipe for disaster in the NCAAF odds as the Tigers come to town.


The Picks

LSU is coming in at a peak and Arkansas is certainly at a trough. There will likely be some regression to the mean for both teams on Saturday, but the three-point spread still seems like a gift. Look for LSU to put up points and cruise as a road favorite and NCAAF pick.

NCAAF Pick: LSU -3 (-104) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

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LSU -3 (-104)
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NCAAF Pick: Over 63.5 (-110) at Bookmaker

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Over 63.5 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.