Kentucky vs. Ole Miss NCAAF Week 5 Pick and Score Prediction

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Will Levis #7 of the Kentucky Wildcats runs the ball during the second half against the Northern Illinois Huskies. Michael Hickey/Getty Images/AFP.

Kentucky will travel to Oxford to take on their SEC rivals from Ole Miss.

Let’s break down this Saturday afternoon matchup and get another ATS cover in our college football picks!

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Kentucky Wildcats vs. Ole Miss Rebels

Saturday, October 1, 2022 – 12:00 PM EDT at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium

Undefeated Kentucky Wildcats

The Wildcats enter this high-noon meeting with Ole Miss after winning their fourth consecutive game of the season, a 31-23 victory over Northern Illinois, keeping their undefeated streak unblemished.

However, it was Kentucky’s first failed ATS cover on the season as they were installed as 27 ½ point home favorites but the Huskies proved they had plenty of bite to go along with their bark.

Quarterback and Touchdowns

Senior quarterback, Will Levis, launched 4 touchdown passes and torched the Northern Illinois secondary for 303 yards despite being sacked 5 times.

Tayvion Robinson and Barion Brown did most of the damage by combining for 249 receiving yards and four touchdowns. Kavosiey Smoke kept the running game moving with 85 yards on 12 carries but was unable to find the end zone in the victory.

Wildcats' Defense

The Wildcats defense was without a sack or an interception and head coach, Mark Stoops, said, "Overall, just a sluggish game. Good to get it behind us.

We know that's a good football team that's tough, they're gonna play hard and compete for their conference championship. We knew it wasn't going to be easy and I thought we did some good things."

Rebels Tame the Golden Hurricane

Ole Miss is another undefeated SEC team that has had the luxury of a soft early season schedule with wins over Troy, Central Arkansas, Georgia Tech, and most recently Tulsa.

Rebels' Defense

The Rebels are 4-0 straight-up and 2-2 against the spread but their defense showed cracks for the first time this season in their victory over the Golden Hurricane of Tulsa last Saturday.

Prior to meeting Tulsa, Ole Miss surrendered a combined 13 points over their first three games but Saturday’s game was different in that Tulsa’s offensive game plan mirrored that of the Rebels, leaning heavily on the rushing attack and churning out 262 yards on the ground.

But Ole Miss was also relying on the ground-and-pound, recording 308 yards with three rushing touchdowns.

Ole Miss's Secret Weapons

Jaxson Dart, a sophomore USC transfer, was a dual threat with a pair of passing touchdowns and 116 rushing yards on 13 carries.

But it was freshman tailback, Quinshon Judkins, who was the workhorse running the rock, piling up 140 yards on the ground and two touchdowns.

"The defense stopped them on the last few drives and that was big," said Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin. "But we got shut out in the second half on offense and it's clear we've got a lot of work to do."

Kentucky vs. Ole Miss: Final Analysis

It’s important to note that both teams had their early season schedule sprinkled with cupcakes, with one lone exception.

Kentucky made a September 10th visit to The Swamp where they were installed as six-point road underdogs and came away with an impressive 26-16 victory over Florida, not only covering but rewarding their moneyline backers with a +203 return at top-notch shops like BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review).

The key to this game is the Ole Miss passing game which is ranked 98th in the nation averaging just 207 yards per game versus the Kentucky pass defense ranked 15th in the nation, allowing only 163 yards per contest.

But we all know that as the Ole Miss running game goes so goes Ole Miss, however, the Kentucky run-stop unit is ranked 32nd in that category against the 4th ranked Ole Miss rushing attack.

Ground vs. Air Attack

I realize the Rebels will get their share of yards on the ground but the Kentucky air attack should be able to counter that and then some if quarterback Will Levis gets better protection than he did in the win last week over Northern Illinois.

Ultimately, the Rebels will likely wear down the Wildcats, but this one should be a competitive game from start to finish.

Would I be surprised if Kentucky pulls off the win? Not at all, but because books like Bovada (visit our Bovada Review) are giving us a touchdown head start, I will gladly take the points and back the road hound here.

Kentucky vs. Ole Miss: Pick and Prediction

  • Wildcats are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Wildcats are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
  • Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
  • Rebels are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Rebels are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Rebels are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.

Predicted Score: Ole Miss 27 - Kentucky 24

NCAAF Pick: Kentucky +7 (-115) at Bovada

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Kentucky +7 (-115)
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