Kansas State vs. TCU Big 12 Championship Game Top Picks: Wildcats & Frogs in Unexpected Matchup

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Head coach Sonny Dykes of the TCU Horned Frogs reacts as TCU takes on the Iowa State Cyclones during the first half at Amon G. Carter Stadium on November 26, 2022 in Fort Worth, Texas. Ron Jenkins/Getty Images/AFP

It’s not the Big 12 Championship that was predicted back in August, and we’re dissecting the numbers at the best online betting sites for the battle between Kansas State and TCU. 

If you’re located in Texas and plan to bet on this game, check out our Texas betting sites.

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Kansas State Wildcats vs. TCU Horned Frogs

Saturday, December 3, 2022 – 12:00 PM EST at AT&T Stadium 

Congratulations to anyone holding college football futures tickets on either the Kansas State Wildcats or TCU Horned Frogs to win the Big 12 title this season, their collision this Saturday at Jerry World is about to provide a nice payday for the ultimate winners. 

To say neither Kansas State nor TCU was expected to be here would be an understatement. The Wildcats and Horned Frogs were each selling around 15/1 to win the Big 12 back in August, which means they both ranked behind an Iowa State team that finished last in the conference. 

Frogs Small Chalk Close to Home 

Early action for the matchup has predominantly been on the TCU side. After officially going out as 1½-point favorites, the Horned Frogs have jumped up a point to -2½ at most shops with the scoreboard target set 61½-62. 

Rematch of Week 8 Collision in Cowtown 

Their meeting in Ft. Worth about six weeks ago was a tale of two games as Kansas State built a 28-10 lead midway through the second quarter, then went quiet as the Horned Frogs came roaring back for a 38-28 victory, TCU covering as 3½-point chalk in that one. 

That triumph for the Horned Frogs stopped a 3-game win streak in the series for the Wildcats, while also putting a halt to a string of six consecutive meetings between TCU and Kansas State that never reached the totals. 

  • The win in October left the all-time series tied 8-8, with Kansas State holding a 6-5 edge as Big 12 opponents
  • Underdogs have covered the NCAAF odds in five of the last eight meetings

Martinez’s Status Remains a Mystery 

Chris Klieman’s crew did not let that October 22nd loss at TCU frustrate them too much, the Wildcats responding by winning four of their next five games with lopsided victories over Oklahoma State and Baylor, last year’s participants in the Big 12 Championship, in that stretch of games. 

Kansas State finished things off this past Saturday with another comfortable win. Closing as 12½-point favorites at most outlets, the Wildcats enjoyed a balanced offense in a 47-27 final that was more than enough to cover the spread. 

Will Howard has been directing the offense for the last three games. Howard came off the bench to replace Adrian Martinez in the loss to the Horned Frogs, then relieved Martinez once again in the one-sided win at Baylor. 

Officially, Martinez is listed as day-to-day with a knee injury. The day-to-day part might make things sound more optimistic than they really are, and bettors should plan on Howard being under center for the game against TCU. 

Duggan Leads Big 12 with 171.2 QB Rating 

Sonny Dykes and TCU made comebacks commonplace this season, with the triumph over Kansas State one of four games the Horned Frogs pulled off with rallies in the fourth quarter or by scoring the winning points in overtime. 

There was no late rally needed this past weekend. Closing as 9½-point chalk at Bookmaker, TCU crushed the Iowa State Cyclones with a 62-14 rout that saw the Horned Frogs build a 24-0 lead in the opening quarter and return two interceptions for touchdowns. 

The offense has been behind TCU’s unblemished record to date. The Horned Frogs lead the Big 12 in scoring offense (41.3 ppg), total offense (473 ypg), and plays from scrimmage of 20+ yards (77), and Max Duggan has been as good as any quarterback in the country. 

But it was the defense that turned the win over the Cyclones into a rout. In addition to the two Pick 6’s, the Horned Frogs pounced on one fumble and used special team's play to set Duggan and the offense up on short fields. 

Can K-State Pull Off the Upset? 

We are not worried at all about the slight chance of rain in the Saturday afternoon forecast for the D-FW area, and we should expect the roof to be buttoned up for the affair.   

It’s no secret that College Football Playoff Selection Committee would rather TCU just went away. There is mounting pressure from the media and conference presidents to put more teams with bigger national followings into the 4-team playoff ahead of the Horned Frogs even if they are undefeated. 

It has been a magical season for TCU, but I’m afraid the magic will run out this Saturday to give the CFP committee its wish. My college football picks are for the Wildcats winning outright in a more defensive battle than the first meeting. 

NCAAF Pick: Kansas State ML (+120) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Kansas State ML (+120)
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NCAAF Pick: Under 62 (-108) at Heritage Sports

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Under 62 (-108)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.