Kansas St. vs. Baylor NCAAF Week 11 Top Picks: Big 12 Elimination Game

profile image of Willie.Bee
adrian-martinez-kansas-state-wildcats-texas-longhorns-aspect-ratio-16-9
Adrian Martinez #9 of the Kansas State Wildcats runs upfield against defensive back Morice Blackwell Jr. #37 of the Texas Longhorns. Peter Aiken/Getty Images/AFP.

We’re looking inside the numbers at the top-rated sportsbooks for winning wagers in the crucial clash between the Kansas State Wildcats and Baylor Bears.

PLAY NOW: $25,000 Free-To-Play NFL Contest BMR’s 2022 Pick’Em Pool With Weekly Prizes


Kansas State Wildcats vs. Baylor Bears

Saturday, November 12, 2022 – 07:00 PM EST at McLane Stadium

It has been a wild ride for Kansas State this season, one that began with the Wildcats picked to finish in the middle of the pack as 15/1 longshots on the college football futures back in August before the campaign started.

That ride could come to an end this Saturday night in Waco, however, as Kansas State faces a must-win situation against the Baylor Bears who could be facing elimination in defending their themselves if they can’t build on a 3-game win streak.

Second Place in Big 12 on Line

Kansas State and Baylor begin the game in a three-way tie for second with the Texas Longhorns, each of those sides having dropped a pair of conference games and sitting behind the TCU Horned Frogs who are unbeaten in Big 12 action.

About 20 minutes after the Wildcats and Bears kick things off in Waco, the Longhorns and Horned Frogs get their game underway about 90 minutes south along I-35 in Austin, meaning there’s going to be a lot of fans in each stadium streaming the other game on their phones.


‘Cats 2nd in Big 12 Allowing 19.1 PPG

Kansas State dug itself a deep hole last week at home against the Longhorns, trailing 31-10 at the intermission and never able to make all that ground up in an eventual 34-27 loss as a 3-point home underdog and BetOnline.

That was the second conference loss for the Wildcats who let one slip away two weeks earlier at TCU. With games remaining against West Virginia and Kansas, Chris Klieman’s crew would see their chances of finishing second fall to the wayside with a loss to Baylor.

It was a late fumble by Adrian Martinez that sealed last week’s loss to Texas. Martinez was also picked off earlier in the game, his first interception since the season opener. Kansas State is first in the Big 12 in turnover margin (+1.00 per game).

Bears 2nd in Big 12 Scoring 38.3 PPG

Other than TCU controlling its own destiny, Baylor is the only other team in the same boat as the Bears begin a tough close to the 2022 schedule. The Bears follow this game up with matchups against the Horned Frogs next week before closing out at the Longhorns.

Baylor comes in playing great football and on a 3-game win streak since suffering those consecutive setbacks to Oklahoma State and West Virginia early in October.

The latest triumph was a mild upset last week against Oklahoma, a bend-but-don’t-break performance by the Baylor defense and a career day on the ground by Craig Williams in a 38-35 final. It was just the second time the Bears beat the Sooners in Norman.


K-State in 4-Game Slide Against BU

By virtue of winning the last four meetings, the Bears have just inched ahead of the Wildcats with a 10-9 lead in the rivalry, with all 19 of those clashes taking place since the Big 12 Conference was formed in 1996.

Baylor was getting 2½ points a year ago when the Bears traveled to Manhattan, and they let their defense do most of the work in a 20-10 final that saw Kansas State turn it over twice and lose the time of possession battle by nearly 12 minutes.

  • Last year’s final was the fifth in a row in Manhattan to come up short of the totals, while the last three in Waco sailed past the NCAA football odds.
  • Underdogs have covered six of the last seven meetings.
  • The Wildcats are 1-1-1 ATS in Big 12 road games this season while the Bears have split covers in their two league home tilts.

Could Wind be a Factor?

It’s going to be a cloudy and cool day along the mighty, muddy Brazos River, with the weatherman suggesting the low-50s when the opening boot comes and a 10-15 mph blow out of the north that could affect the kicking game headed to that end of McLane Stadium.


Cool ‘Cats the Choice

Most shops started the wagering proceedings with the Bears giving up 3½, but the hook has been erased and backing Baylor now means starting in the hole by a field goal.

Playing the scoreboard means a decision on a 53-point total. My decision is to play this one with a pair of college football picks by taking the points on the Wildcats and going with the recent trend of higher-scoring games in Waco.

NCAAF Pick: Kansas State +3 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

Heritage Sports logo
Kansas State +3 (-108)
Visit Site

NCAAF Pick: Over 53 (-108) at Heritage Sports

Heritage Sports logo
Over 53 (-108)
Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.