Kansas vs. Baylor: NCAAF Week 8 Betting Picks

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Quarterback Jason Bean #17 of the Kansas Jayhawks throws against the Oklahoma Sooners. Brian Bahr/Getty Images/AFP.

Sudden line moves have made the Over the right college football pick for Saturday’s tilt between the Kansas Jayhawks and Baylor Bears.

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Kansas Jayhawks vs. Baylor Bears

Saturday, October 22, 2022 – 12:00 PM EDT at McLane Stadium

It’s been another successful week of college football picks here at the ranch. We got two out of three right; Kentucky beat visiting Mississippi State 27-17 after steaming all the way from +7 to +3.5, and we split the USC-Utah matchup when the Trojans covered in their 43-42 loss at Utah (Over 66).

Let’s see if we can print some more money this week. Sadly, my people have been advised that the information provider I’ve been using lately for analysis has recently added a tout service to their package, so I won’t be referring to their models anymore in this space.

But we won’t be missing much with the free-to-use projections provided by FiveThirtyEight and others. It’s all good. For example, Nate Silver’s crew project the Baylor Bears to win Saturday’s bout with the Kansas Jayhawks about 72% of the time. That works out to a fair moneyline of -257 using the undefeated BMR Odds Converter, and that’s the rough equivalent of -8 on the point spread, as per Wizard of Odds.

Sure enough, the Bears are 8-point home faves on the NCAAF odds board at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review) as we go to press. And while they might be a bit chalky at -310 on the moneyline, you’re not going to get any betting value with Kansas at +255. Looks like we’ll have to hit up that 63-point total at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review) instead.


What Just Happened to the Total?

Oh, dear. Just as I was writing that, the total dropped from 63 to 60.5. I was about to tell you to bet the Under for a small sum, based partly on the weather forecast for Waco.

Crosswinds of 20-25 mph are expected at McLane Stadium, which should make life a bit more difficult for the two offenses in question. This was going to be a classic contrarian NCAAF pick.

Causal Bettors vs. Sharp Bettors

Casual bettors love offense, and in this game, they’re getting two of the Big 12’s more potent scoring machines. But wind is one of those environmental factors that actually has a real impact on offense, unlike colder temperatures, or even a bit of snow.

As a rule, the casuals aren’t paying attention to these things. The sharps sure do, though. They’ve pounced on this total before we had a chance to talk about it, so now we have to recalibrate and consider taking the Over instead.

Jeff Sagarin, at The USA Today, projects these two teams to score about 71 points between them, and the line move from 63 to 60.5 means we’re now two scores away from that projection, instead of a touchdown and a 2-point conversion.


What About Baylor’s Defense?

Yes, the Bears (Over 4-2) are pretty good at that end of the field. While we wait for Football Outsiders to update their F+ rankings, Baylor went into Week 7 ranked No. 21 overall on defense, compared to No. 29 on offense.

All well and good, but the Bears have played the softest schedule in the Big 12, according to the fine folks at Sports Reference. Things started going pear-shaped in Week 5 when Baylor ran into Oklahoma State and lost 36-25 (Over 57).

Then, the Bears came back from their bye and got into a firefight with West Virginia, one that ended with the Mountaineers up 43-40 (Over 55). Baylor should have their hands full again this Saturday.

The Jayhawks (Over 4-3) were No. 20 on the offensive F+ charts before last week’s 52-42 loss to Oklahoma, which easily blew out the 66.5-point total on the NCAAF odds board.

Jalon Daniels

The loss of starting QB Jalon Daniels (shoulder) hasn’t slowed them down, either. Back-up Jason Bean was their starter in 2021, for the first nine games, at least, after transferring from North Texas.

Bean played well in each of the last two games despite taking the L, and will likely be pressed into service again this Saturday, with Daniels not expected back until November 5 at the earliest.

Plus, as you may have guessed from that final score against the Sooners, the Kansas defense has a few holes in it. They ranked No. 98 out of the 131 FBS teams, and they could fall even further after CB Cobee Bryant was carted off last week with a left ankle injury.

Throw it all together in the top-rated sportsbooks, and we’re willing to recommend a fun-sized bet on the Over now that the total has shed a few points. Don’t lay any serious coin on this one, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

NCAAF Pick: Over 60.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports

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Over 60.5 (-108)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.