Iowa State vs. Oklahoma College Football Week 12 Picks and Predictions

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Quarterback Caleb Williams #13 of the Oklahoma Sooners scrambles. Brian Bahr/Getty Images/AFP

Consider the total for Saturday’s tilt between the Iowa State Cyclones and the Oklahoma Sooners since the NCAAF lines are getting tighter. Read on for some high-quality betting advice and start cashing out at the top-rated sportsbooks.

 

Iowa State Cyclones vs. Oklahoma Sooners

Saturday, November 20, 2021 – 12:00 PM EST at Memorial Stadium

The Oklahoma Sooners probably weren’t going to make the College Football Playoff. The Big 12 is relatively weak this year (and about to get weaker), so even though the Sooners were undefeated, their performance level wasn’t good enough to make a dent in the CFP rankings. Now their slim playoff chances are down to the nubbins after last week’s 27-14 loss to the Baylor Bears as 4-point road faves on the NCAAF odds board.

A disappointing result like that would normally make the Sooners (9-1 SU, 4-6 ATS) a viable fade candidate for this Saturday’s matchup with the Iowa State Cyclones (6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS). However, the college football lines at press time look pretty tight, which is to be expected this late in the season. The best price on the Sooners is –3.5 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review), which might even generate a smidge of value for OU bettors – if these projections are solid. 

Route 66.66666...  

They should be. Again, it’s late in the season, so there’s plenty of data to plug into the computers. Here’s what they’ve spat out: 

  • Jeff Sagarin: Oklahoma –4.93 
  • FiveThirtyEight: OU 66 percent
  • ESPN Football Power Index: OU 65.5 percent 

If you’ve been betting on football for a while, you probably know that a two-thirds chance of winning translates to –200 on the moneyline, so we don’t really need to bust out the beatific BMR Odds Converter this time. And –200 is about the same as a point spread of –6 according to Wizard of Odds, vigorish notwithstanding. So maybe there is some value on Oklahoma – but we have to cool our jets in this case.

For one thing, that –3.5 spread at BetOnline comes with –112 juice attached. Most of the best online sportsbooks have the Sooners at either –4 or –4.5, which is more in line with Sagarin’s projections. Include the letdown factor from last week’s result, plus those above percentages being a bit less than two-thirds, and we can’t bring ourselves here at the ranch to recommend Oklahoma for anything more than the tiniest of recreational wagers.

Fresh Meat 

The Under is another matter. Thanks to Baylor, we’ve seen for the first time that the Sooners offense is vulnerable with freshman QB Caleb Williams at the helm. Williams carved up some pretty bad defenses during his first four shots at being The Man, but he’s about to face another tough test in Iowa State, who checks in at No. 24 on the defensive SP+ charts at ESPN heading into Week 12.

It’s also supposed to be a windy Saturday in Norman, although those 15-mph breezes are expected to blow up and down the field rather than sideways. There’s a 60-point total on the college football odds board at Bovada, and Sagarin projects these teams to combine for 56.48 points, so let’s put that Under in our Week 12 NCAAF picks for a small sum and see what happens. 

NCAAF Pick: Under 60 (–110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Under 60 (–110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.