NCAAF Week 1: How to Bet on Brian Kelly’s Debut for LSU Against Florida State

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The Brian Kelly era begins at LSU on Sunday in the Big Easy, and we’ve got a free NCAAF pick as the Tigers host the Florida State Seminoles in a matchup of a couple of programs struggling to return to their glory days.

Florida State Seminoles vs. LSU Tigers

Sunday, September 04, 2022 – 07:30 PM EDT at Caesars Superdome

Florida State vs. LSU: What You Should Know

Florida and Louisiana share a lot of things in common, like humidity, alligators, the shoreline along the Gulf of Mexico and the hurricanes that go with it. One thing the two states do not share is a love for one another on the football field.

That gridiron acrimony should be evident with every tackle Sunday night when the Florida State Seminoles travel west to New Orleans to take on the LSU Tigers in a standalone contest on the college football odds board.


It’s a matchup of a couple of teams that are each trying to recover from failure and return to the notoriety and respect they once enjoyed and commanded. It doesn’t hurt, however, that the contest gets the added boost that comes with Brian Kelly’s debut as the LSU head coach.

The Tigers are giving up 3 points for the most part, some shops listing 2½ for the spread, and scoreboard bettors are faced with a decision on a 51½-point total.

  • Florida State went 6-6 ATS last season, and finished 4-8 O/U in the totals column.
  • The Tigers were 5-7-1 ATS a year ago, and 6-7 O/U.

Florida State Seminoles Analysis

‘Noles Begin ‘22 on a Winning Note

With four consecutive losing season directly behind them, Mike Norvell is on the proverbial coaching hot seat in Tallahassee. Last year’s 5-7 squad started off with four losses, so Norvell and the Seminoles were at least happy to begin 2022 with a dubya.

Florida State came out very aggressive in the Week 0 win over Duquesne of the FCS, putting up 20 points in the opening stanza of an eventual 47-7 triumph. It wasn’t quite enough to cover the 42 points that Seminole backers were asked to lay at the top-rated sportsbooks, but Norvell backed off a bit in the second half with this game at LSU on deck.

Every preseason report on the Seminoles talked about how they are primed to use a ground attack to get things turned around. Behind an experienced offensive line, Florida State certainly did that in the opener with over 400 yards rushing and three backs eclipsing the 100-yard mark.


LSU Tigers Analysis

Who Will Be Under Center for the Tigers?

It’s going to take a few games to get used to seeing Kelly roaming the LSU sidelines. That’s not only true for the fans but the entire team which has undergone a huge makeover since the end of last season, from the coaching staff to the players on that same sideline.

We will find out Sunday night which one of them gets the starting quarterback nod from Kelly. The top candidates are junior Jayden Daniels, who transferred in from Arizona State, and sophomore Garrett Nussmeier.

Whoever starts won’t necessarily be in there the entire game. Kelly hinted at just how close the competition between the two has been, and said that the offensive scheme and plays would not change much with either Daniels or Nussmeier in the game.


First Time Since 1991

It was 1991 and George H.W. ‘Papa’ Bush was in the White House when the Seminoles and Tigers last appeared on each other’s schedule, and considering all that’s happened since then in the world, it makes that seem like more than 31 years ago.

That 1991 contest marked the eighth time Florida State and LSU had gotten together since 1979, and it appeared the series could become a regular interconference matchup. But that didn’t work out, in part because the Seminoles by then were a powerhouse and didn’t have to travel to play the big boys any longer.

Florida State holds a 7-2 advantage in the series and won the last four meetings, three of those taking place in Baton Rouge.


Florida State vs. LSU: Betting Pick for NCAAF Week 1

Just because neither team is expected to contend for a conference title this season doesn’t make this game any less crucial to both programs.

The Seminoles and Fighting Irish have the talent to make the preseason college football futures look foolish, at least the win total projections.

Florida State already has a leg up on LSU with a game under its belt and a dubya in the win column, and while the Seminoles might not have enough to win this one outright, they’ll keep it close enough to make the points stand up.

Score Prediction: Florida State 26 - LSU 27

NCAAF Pick: Florida State +3 (-105) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

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Florida State +3 (-105)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.