The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets look for their third major NCAAF odds upset this Saturday when they visit the No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs.
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Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Saturday, November 26, 2022 – 12:00 PM EST at Sanford Stadium
Well, phooey. Not only did the Georgia Bulldogs fail to cash in last week, but they also didn’t even score enough points to beat the spread. Georgia had to settle for a hard-fought 16-6 win over the Kentucky Wildcats, who cashed in as 22.5-point home dogs on the Week 12 NCAAF odds board.
It was part of a mixed bag of results for our college football picks here at the home office, and we’ve got mixed feelings as well about this Saturday’s matchup between the Bulldogs (11-0 SU, 6-5 ATS) and the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-6 SU and ATS).
We do like Georgia Tech as 36-point road dogs at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review). Although we’re not too keen on putting a whole lot of money on it, that -107 deal on juice might be just enough to make this a standard single-unit wager for your Week 13 NCAAF picks.
What Happened to Georgia Tech?
Paul Johnson left. The Yellow Jackets have had some amazing teams over the years, thanks to legendary coaches like John Heisman, William Alexander, Bobby Dodd, and most recently Johnson, who led Georgia Tech to Orange Bowl success at the end of the 2014 campaign.
That’s when things started to go south. Georgia Tech stumbled to a 3-9 record in 2015, Johnson retired three years later, and Geoff Collins failed to get anything out of the Jackets before he and athletic director Todd Stansbury were given the boot in late September.
One door closes, and another one opens. Georgia Tech is 4-3 SU and ATS under interim head coach Brent Key, their former associate coach and one-time right guard back in the late ‘90s. That includes a big upset over Pitt in Week 5 as 21.4-point road dogs and last week’s 21-17 win over North Carolina (-22 at home).
The Bulldogs are substantially better than those two ACC opponents. However, Jeff Sagarin at The USA Today projects Georgia to win by “only” around 34 points, which lines up pretty well with the other models we’re studying here at the ranch. Seems legit.
Should I Bet the Under?
Not this time. The Bulldogs and their FBS-best defense have the Under at 7-3-1 this year, and the Yellow Jackets have the Under at 7-4, but that 48.5-point total at Bookmaker is a bit too low – which you might expect after last week’s result in Lexington.
We’re also not seeing much betting value on the Over. This is a tight line, almost exactly where Sagarin projects these two teams to land at 48.55; we don’t always quote his total projections in this space, but they’re getting more and more prescient as the season wears on and the data piles up.
This does tie into why we might take the Jackets and the points. As we’ve mentioned a few times over the years, it’s not easy for a big favorite like Georgia to cover when the totals are this low. A final score of Georgia Tech 7, Georgia 42 would land pretty close to that total; for the Bulldogs to cover, they’ll either have to shut out the Jackets and/or score more than six touchdowns.
Should I Bet the Yellow Jackets Straight Up?
Tempting, isn’t it? It’s often difficult to get any real moneyline value on big underdogs – or any betting lines at all, for that matter. Only a few select overseas locations at press time have the Yellow Jackets available on the ML, for around +10000.
That is a tasty payday, though. The equivalence charts at Wizard of Odds only go up to 31 points, but that spread is roughly equal to +3745 for a fair moneyline. And if we take that 2% chance FiveThirtyEight is giving Georgia Tech to win, and run it through the bespoke BMR Odds Converter, we get +4900 out the other side.
Given that we were only looking at a small potential profit margin on the spread, I’m calling an audible here and going for the ML gusto. They don’t call this rivalry “Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate” for nothing. Georgia Tech will have no problem getting motivated for Saturday’s game, and as we’ve already seen, they’re capable of winning outright as double-digit dogs with Key at the helm. We’ll buy that for a dollar.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.