Georgia vs. Alabama CFP National Championship Game: Best Moneyline Pick

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Jermaine Burton #7 of the Georgia Bulldogs. Michael Reaves/Getty Images/AFP

The table is set. For a second time this season, Georgia and Alabama will do battle, and while the stakes were high for the SEC Championship, that pales in comparison to being crowned a national champion.

The number of articles produced for college football’s biggest game would be remarkable to know. Seemingly every possible angle and situation will be analyzed. That includes from the betting perceptive. Bellow, we will explain what is one view of how to bet this matchup from a moneyline perspective.

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

Monday, January 10, 2022 – 08:00 PM EST Lucas Oil Stadium

Why Alabama Deserves to Be Backed

As this article went to post on January, 5th, 70 percent of bets were on Alabama and more than 80 percent of the money was on the Crimson Tide. If you step away, that makes perfect sense.

Under Nick Saban, Alabama has won six championships since 2009. This is almost certain to be the gold standard for all time in the sport or one that will not be surpassed in our lifetimes. In the early part of Saban winning titles, he had the best teams and by position, they were arguably the best at running backs, offensive line, defensive line, linebackers, and at or close to the Top 10 everywhere except quarterback.

As the game changed, so did Saban and he realized the offense and elite quarterback play was the direction to follow and he adjusted his recruiting. Today, he has the best quarterbacks, wide receivers and he has top-flight players and units everywhere else.

To most, whether Georgia is favored after losing the last contest is irrelevant. For those looking at the college football odds, they are just a number, and Saban’s Crimson Tide has earned complete respect and proven time and again Saban’s recruiting methods and “process” are almost impossible to beat.

Does that make Bama a lock to win another title? In most people’s minds, it does and that is hard to argue with, especially receiving the value of betting an underdog against the spread or on the moneyline. However, there is always a contrarian point of view.

Why Georgia Is the Moneyline Play

While this writer acknowledges that going against Alabama seems crazy, that’s not the first time that sentiment has come up, and is certain it won’t be the last.

After two years of reportedly seeing the greatest offenses in college football in our lives, Georgia turned the tables and altered the discussion to a  - once in a generation defense. The Bulldogs were allowing less than seven points a game and had a 10-0 lead on the Tide in the SEC title tilt. Then Georgia went tilt.

The Bulldogs were outscored 38-7 from just past the 15-minute mark in the game until just under the 48-minute mark. Those almost 33 minutes of game time completely changed the thought process of Georgia football in 2021.

By all accounts, Kirby Smart, the coaching staff, and the players were all stunned, disappointed, but never mentally defeated. They proved that by thoroughly dismantling what was believed to be a very good Michigan squad. Instead of rejoicing everything was back to normal, Smart took the torch and said basically nothing had been accomplished, and being prepared for a rematch with their rival is what mattered.

How Does Georgia Accomplish This Mission?

On defense, Georgia has to rattle QB Bryce Young. That could leave them vulnerable in the secondary against all of Bama’s weapons, but playing coverage failed, leaving them no option. Young was off his game against Auburn and for parts of the Cincinnati contest. The Bulldogs have to harass Young, get legally physical with him, and have that seep into his head.

Offensively, the Bulldogs coaches have to get creative in the run game with motion and misdirection. This would include sending part of the line one way and having runners plant and look for cutback lanes or running outside tackles.

Quarterback Stetson Bennett said this past week he cannot be the “hero”, he and his teammates just have to do their jobs. He’s right on that but Bennett has to be on target on all throws and the play-calling has to allow him to complete short passes to later take deep shots, of which a larger than normal amount must connect.

The Bulldogs were the best team since October started and the top-rated sportsbooks still believe they are. Monday, they prove it on the field.

NCAAF Pick: Georgia ML (-150) with YouWager (visit our YouWager Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.