Florida vs. Texas A&M NCAAF Week 10 Picks: Freshman QB Difference for Aggies

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Conner Weigman #15 of the Texas A&M Aggies looks to pass in the second half of the game against the Mississippi Rebels. Tim Warner/Getty Images/AFP.

Florida and Texas A&M have hugely disappointed in SEC play this season as they meet on Saturday afternoon from College Station.

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Florida Gators vs. Texas A&M Aggies 

Saturday, November 5, 2022 – 12:00 PM EDT at Kyle Field

Both Florida and Texas A&M had expectations of competing for an SEC division title this season but, things haven’t gone according to play for either as they meet on ESPN Saturday afternoon. 

Because they are in different divisions, they don’t play each other all that often and in fact it will only be the sixth meeting. Texas A&M leads 3-2 and won the most recent one at home in the 2020 season, 41-38.

Kellen Mond was the Aggies’ QB then and threw for 338 yards and three scores, while Isaiah Spiller rushed for 174 yards and two scores. Kyle Trask, now the backup to Tom Brady with the Bucs, threw for 312 yards and four scores for the Gators. 

The past three meetings in the series have been decided by three or fewer points on the NCAAF odds. This is the first-ever meeting between UF head coach Billy Napier and A&M’s Jimbo Fisher.  

Gators Still Among Top Rushing Teams 

Florida surprised No. 7 Utah 28-26 in the season opener, but really hasn’t beaten a good team since and comes off a 42-20 loss to No. 1 Georgia last Saturday in Jacksonville, the Dawgs were 22-point favorites, the biggest spread in the history of that series. 

The Bulldogs outgained the Gators 346 yards to 88 in total offense while forcing a half-dozen UF punts in the first half. UGA led 28-3 at the break.

It would finish the game with 555 yards of offense, the most ever by a Georgia team in the series (surpassing the previous high of 502 in 1976). 

Anthony Richardson

Gators QB Anthony Richardson completed 18 of 37 passes for 271 yards and one score, but was held to just 19 yards on 11 rushing attempts and sacked three times. The Florida ground game was averaging 212.6 yards per game coming in but limited to 100 yards on 34 carries by a defense ranked No. 2 nationally, including fourth against the run. 

"They just have great guys; they have a great scheme," Richardson said. "Whenever you have a team like that, it's easy for them to do what they do. They have people doing their job, and it's kind of hard to affect them." 

The Gators’ 5.9 yards per carry still ranks third in the FBS and is in line to tie the school record set in 2008. Texas A&M is allowing 4.8 yards per carry this season (116th in FBS). UF boasts three of the top-eight rushers in the SEC in yards per carry: RB Montrell Johnson Jr. (third - 6.4), Richardson (sixth - 6.2) and RB Trevor Etienne (eighth - 6.0). 

The Gators need two wins in their final four games to become bowl eligible. They finish vs. South Carolina, at Vanderbilt and at Florida State. They will need to accomplish that without linebacker Brenton Cox Jr., who has left the team and declared for the 2023 NFL Draft. Cox has 35 tackles, eight tackles for loss, nine quarterback hurries and two sacks. He had started 33 straight games.  

Florida is 4-11 ATS on the NCAAF picks in its past 15 games. 

Aggies Turn To Weigman 

Texas A&M (3-5) enters on a four-game losing streak and the seat of Coach Jimbo Fisher is getting hotter by the day, although he’s owed a buyout of like $85 million so I don’t see him being fired.

Fisher’s 37-19 overall record gives him an identical win percentage (66%) to what his predecessor, Kevin Sumlin, was fired for. 

The Aggies are off a 31-28 home loss to No. 15 Ole Miss on Saturday. The Rebels rushed for 390 yards, including 134 yards in the first quarter, and finished with 530 total yards. It was the most rushing yards Texas A&M had allowed since allowing 393 yards against Texas in 2003. 

Conner Weigman

True freshman Conner Weigman started at quarterback for the first time for A&M and looked very good, throwing for 338 yards (A&M freshman record) and four scores.

The offense totaled 480 yards, just the second time it has surpassed 400 total yards in a game this season. The Aggies are 22-of-25 in the red zone this season after going 4-for-4 in the red zone against the Rebels. 

Layden Robinson

Offensive lineman Layden Robinson having Weigman in the huddle brings a different feel to the game. He should stay the starter as Weigman finished the evening with an 87.5 PFF college grade. It’s the highest grade from a true freshman starting QB all season

"I feel like it was a good step in the right direction," replied Robinson when asked how the offense runs with Weigman taking snaps. "I feel like that was one of our better games, and he did step in and did a great job...He came in there, took command of the huddle, and stepped up when he was needed. And you don't expect [anything] less from him." 

Texas A&M has to win three of its final four to get bowl eligible and the Aggies finish at Auburn, vs. UMass (sure win) and vs. No. 15 LSU.

The Pick

I do like A&M here, the offense looked night-and-day different with the highly touted Weigman under center. But we’ll do the moneyline. 

Score Prediction: Texas A&M 27 - Florida 24 

NCAAF Pick: Under 53.5 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Under 53.5
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NCAAF Pick: Aggies ML (-160) at BetOnline 

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Aggies ML (160)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.