A week ago, this Saturday night’s Florida State at NC State matchup looked like one of the most important games of the year in the ACC.
It still has meaning but lost some last week when both lost. Which way to lean at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks?
Florida State Seminoles vs. NC State Wolfpack
Saturday, October 08, 2022 – 08:00 PM EDT at Carter-Finley Stadium
Very few people I know even have the ACC Network or know they have it (if they do), but that will carry this game from the Atlantic Division.
I’m pretty sure Clemson will win the Atlantic since it just beat NC State, but the Tigers have to visit the Seminoles next week.
Last year, NC State was a 3-point favorite in Tallahassee and won 28-14. Star Wolfpack QB Devin Leary threw for 314 yards and four touchdowns, one in each quarter. Three of the four were at least 43 yards. Then and current Noles starting QB Jordan Travis was out injured. Florida State had only 78 offensive yards and three first downs in the first 30 minutes.
FSU leads the all-time series 27-15 but has covered the spread on NCAAF picks in only three of the previous 21. NC State has won four of the past five.
Seminoles Can’t Afford Another Loss
Florida State was a 6-point home favorite last week but was upset by Wake Forest, 31-21. The Deacons kicked a 27-yard field goal with 2:55 left to put the game out of reach and had 405 total yards.
Wake also held the ball for 34:32 and didn’t have a turnover. The Noles had one giveaway and had 11 penalties for 96 yards. Quarterback Jordan Travis threw for 281 yards and 3 scores.
Travis' 3,900 career passing yards and 283 completions are 17th in school history, while his 29 career touchdown passes are now 18th.
Wide receiver Mycah Pittman caught his first two touchdowns at FSU. Pittman is the third Seminole with a two-receiving touchdown game this season, joining Ontaria Wilson (LSU) and Johnny Wilson (Louisville). It's the first year since 2016 that FSU had three different players record a multiple-touchdown game.
Florida State is tied for the ACC lead and for 10th nationally with an average of 9.4 yards per pass attempt and also leads the ACC and ranks 11th nationally with an average of 14.62 yards per completion.
Travis’ average of 9.7 yards per pass attempt is tied for 8th in the country and for first in the ACC, while his 14.77 yards per completion is first in the conference and 10th in the nation.
FSU is second in the ACC in total offense and rushing offense while ranking 3rd in the conference in passing offense and third-down conversions. The Noles are converting 48.4% of their 3rd-down opportunities, 24th nationally.
Florida State ranks second in the ACC and 22nd in the country in passing defense, holding opponents to an average of 179.4 yards per game through the air.
This is Coach Mike Norvell’s club second true game of the year as it won 35-31 at Louisville on Sept. 16. Starting left tackle Robert Scott is in question. He did dress for the Wake Forest game but didn’t play.
Defensive tackle Fabien Lovett hasn't suited up since being injured on the final drive of Florida State's victory over LSU in Week 1.
The Seminoles are 1-5 against the spread in their past six after a loss.
Wolfpack Simply Different At Home
NC State (4-1) fell at No. 5 Clemson last week 30-20, and that’s going to be a huge head-to-head tiebreaker. Wolfpack QB Devin Leary, the Preseason ACC Player of the Year, was not great in completing 28 of 47 for 245 yards, a TD and a pick.
NC State's first offensive drive of the game was also its longest (in terms of plays) of the season. The 15-play, 78-yard drive resulted in a 20-yard field goal from Christopher Dunn. He is 7-for-7 on field goals this year.
The Wolfpack have two Florida State transfers who start on defense in nose tackle Cory Durden and safety Cyrus Fagan. NC State defensive coordinator Tony Gibson and FSU head coach Mike Norvell were on the same staff at Pittsburgh in 2011.
Coach Dave Doeren’s team is riding a 13-game home winning streak, the fifth-longest in the nation. The Pack are outscoring foes 34.8-14.9 in that run.
Perhaps consider a first-quarter bet on the home side as NC State has outscored FSU 82-17 in the first quarter of the past eight meetings.
Following the NCAAF odds, Wolfpack are looking for their first-ever three-game winning in the series. I think they get it because of Leary and very good defense that is allowing only 15.4 ppg.
That’s the lowest points allowed mark through the first five games of the season since 2015. Finally, NC State is 7-0 ATS in its past seven after a loss.
Score Prediction: NC State 27, Florida State 23
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.