Florida vs. FSU NCAAF Week 13 Top Picks: Sunshine State Bragging Rights In Finale

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Jordan Travis #13 of the Florida State Seminoles warms up during a game against the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns. James Gilbert/Getty Images/AFP

Bragging rights in the Sunshine State are on the line Friday night when No. 16 Florida State hosts unranked Florida in the regular-season finale for both.

Which way to lean at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks? Let’s break down the NCAAF odds for Friday’s game.

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Florida Gators vs. Florida State Seminoles 

Friday, November 25, 2022 – 07:30 PM EST at Bobby Bowden Field at Doak S. Campbell Stadium 

Last Year's Recap

Yes, this game is on Friday night, not Saturday, as it’s the day after American Thanksgiving (also known as Black Friday for shopping reasons). ABC has the telecast. 

Last year, the Noles lost 24-21 in Gainesville as Florida won its third straight in the series. Emory Jones started at QB for Florida but really struggled (three picks) and was replaced by Anthony Richardson, who was 5-for-7 for 55 yards and a score.

Dameon Pierce, now an NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate with the Houston Texans, rushed for 62 yards and a score. Jordan Travis was 18-for-29 for 202 yards with a TD and pick for FSU while rushing for 102 yards and a touchdown.

The game included a pregame skirmish, a ton of trash-talking, and numerous mistakes — six turnovers and 22 penalties for 196 yards. 

The road team is 8-2 against the spread on the NCAAF picks in the past 10 meetings. 

Gators Were Trapped By Vandy 

Florida is bowl eligible at 6-5 but probably would improve its stock a bit with a win here. The Gators may have been looking ahead to this game on Saturday as they were upset 31-24 at Vanderbilt despite 400 yards passing and three touchdowns from Anthony Richardson.

The Commodores had lost eight straight in the series. They held one of the nation’s top rushing attacks to just 45 yards. Vandy came into the game allowing 164.3 yards rushing per game, which ranked 91st in the country. 

"We did not play winning football,'' first-year Gators coach Billy Napier said. "There's a lot of Florida beating Florida out there today." 

The Gators' Missing Players

It didn’t help matters that receivers Ricky Pearsall and Marcus Burke left injured in the first half as that unit already was without injured Xzavier Henderson and Ja'Quavion Fraziars as well as Trent Whittemore, who announced last week that he was entering the transfer portal.  

The Gators also lost starting linebacker Ventrell Miller for targeting in the second half. He will have to sit out the first half of this game unless his appeal is successful. The SEC office can request a review from the national coordinator of officials. If a player was indisputably incorrectly penalized for targeting, the player would be cleared to play in the first half of the next game.

Napier will be the third different UF coach (joining Dan Mullen and interim Greg Knox) to face FSU in the series' last three meetings. 

Noles Playing Best Ball Of Season 

Florida State (8-3) will finish second in the ACC Atlantic Division behind Clemson. The Noles were not caught looking ahead to this game on Saturday as they thumped a decent Louisiana team 49-17 for a fourth straight win. 

FSU scored on seven of its first eight possessions and starting quarterback Jordan Travis sat out the entire second half. Travis completed 9-of-14 passes for 127 yards and a touchdown and rushed for two more scores as FSU mounted a 35-3 halftime lead. Florida State’s defense allowed the Ragin’ Cajuns a total of only 75 yards in the half and just 34 rushing yards.  

Perhaps consider a first-half play here as Florida State's defense has held opponents to an average of 128.8 yards of total offense in the first half, with opponents gaining only 56.3 yards rushing and 72.6 yards passing in the first 30 minutes. The Seminoles are outscoring opponents 230-84 in the first half and have held eight opponents to three or fewer first-half points. 

Seminoles Are on a Streak

The Seminoles have won four straight games by at least 25 points, the longest active streak in the nation and the second-longest streak by any team in 2022. Florida State is first in the ACC and fourth in the country in pass defense, holding opponents to an average of 155.4 yards per game through the air, and also first in the ACC and fourth nationally holding opponents to an average of 5.7 yards per pass attempt. 

FSU has rushed for at least 200 yards in six straight games, the longest active streak in the nation and the program’s longest streak since starting the 1995 season with six consecutive 200-yard games.

The Pick

The Seminoles lead the ACC Conference in yards per rush and rushing offense, with their average of 5.54 yards per rush ranking nine nationally and their average of 217.0 rushing yards per game 14th. Coach Mike Norvell’s club leads the nation with seven touchdown drives of 90+ yards and is second nationally with 15 touchdown drives of 80+ yards this season. 

Florida State, Georgia, and Ohio State are the only teams ranked in the Top 10 in yards per play on offense and defense. The Seminoles are 9th nationally with an average of 4.57 yards per play allowed and 10th with an average of 6.87 yards per play. 

This will be only the second time in series history that the two teams have faced off on a Friday. The Noles will win and cover the spread below 10. If you want to bet on this in-state rivalry, be sure to check out our Florida sports betting guides.

NCAAF Pick: Under 58 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Under 58 (-110)
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NCAAF Pick: FSU -9.5 (-114) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

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FSU -9.5 (-114)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.