College Football Week 9 Picks: Teams on Upset Alert This Weekend

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Terry Roberts #22 of the Iowa Hawkeyes. Matthew Holst/Getty Images/AFP

It is Halloween weekend and let’s face it, given the title of this article, we are very much interested in handing out more tricks than treats this college football weekend.

After a laissez-faire weekend in college football in terms of big games, this week will have no shortage of monster matchups, unlike the store shelves across the world. And we dove right into the betting odds and uncovered a trio of possible upsets for college football picks.

We are to the point of the year where upsets are going to happen and the best-laid plans come undone and we think we have some contests that might not be shockers, but certainly head-turners.

Below, we’ll take a look at the early NCAAF odds and the best sportsbook to bet with this week. 

Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Wisconsin Badgers

Saturday, October 30, 2021 – 12:00 PM EDT at Camp Randall Stadium

Though Wisconsin sits at 4-3 and 2-2 in the Big Ten, if they win out, they are in a position to win the West Division of the Big Ten. Having beaten Purdue, with victories over Iowa and Minnesota (the remaining two one-loss teams in the division) the Badgers would just have to take care of business.

Given how Iowa’s offense was playing (120th in total offense), nobody expected them to go unbeaten. However, the loss was more likely to happen this week, not at home against Purdue, who the Badgers just hammered 30-13. This matchup is about running the ball, stopping the run, and not committing turnovers. In other words, old-school Big Ten football.

Wisconsin passing attack, well, ‘attack’ is probably the wrong word since they are 123rd in yards gained. The Hawkeyes pass offense looks like a Mike Leach-coached crew, by comparison, all the way up to 100th nationally.

We cannot overlook that before having four turnovers against the Boilermakers, Iowa had five turnovers all season. On the year Wisconsin has averaged 2.4 miscues a contest and had at least one in each outing. Iowa is 8-0 ATS in roadies after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse.

NCAAF Pick: Iowa +3.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs. Pittsburgh Panthers

Saturday, October 30, 2021 - 12:00 PM EDT at Heinz Field

Pittsburgh showed maturity, poise, and patience in handling the role of favorite at home against Clemson, who has dominated the ACC for years. The Panthers are now in the driver’s seat to reach the ACC title game but have to pass another test first.

That would be following up a huge triumph as a favorite in an emotional contest with a steady performance as an even larger fave in a matchup everyone (Pitt alumni) expects them to handle.

With Miami nearly a double-digit underdog at 3-4 on the year, nobody will give them a second thought. While the ‘Canes record is indicative of their play, in their last three skirmishes, they are 2-1 ATS and those contests were decided by seven total points. The Hurricanes are playing everyone in the ACC tough and in three of their past four, they have not committed a turnover. Miami is 9-2 SU at Pittsburgh and Pitt is 0-7 ATS home off a home win.

NCAAF Pick: Miami +9.5 (-110) at Bovada

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Ole Miss Rebels vs. Auburn Tigers 

Saturday, October 30, 2021 - 07:00 PM EDT at Jordan-Hare Stadium

What’s at stake in this SEC showdown, more than what you might realize. Ole Miss has one loss in the SEC West and in the unlikely event that Alabama loses again, if the Rebels run the table, they win the division and probably snag the Sugar Bowl bid.

Yet, if Auburn wins out, which would include victories over Texas A&M and in the Iron Bowl, they could become West champs and have a hot quarterback in Bo Nix. The Tigers are short home favorites and they will face the Rebels QB Matt Corral, who has the second-best current Heisman odds.

As good as Corral is, the foundation of Lane Kiffin’s offense is the run game and Ole Miss sits at 3rd nationally in rushing. In Auburn’s previous four tilts, they have conceded 201 or more yards rushing three times. Maybe Nix can bail out Auburn, but with Corral and the running game working, Ole Miss does the job.

NCAAF Pick: Mississippi +2.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.