Each week we take one final look at the college football odds and see where the lines have shifted to determine if there is any value in those moves. This week we do it again and isolate three of the best value bets on college football Saturday.
Syracuse Orange vs. Virginia Tech Hokies
Saturday, October 23, 2021 – 12:30 PM EDT at Lane Stadium
The move on this game is slight but significant as Virginia Tech opened as three-point home chalk. And while that number remains at many of the best online sportsbooks in the business, a few shops are now offering 3 ½ which gives us cause for pause as we peruse Saturday’s college slate of games.
Syracuse is winless in their conference games (3-4 overall) this season and resides in the basement of the ACC’s Atlantic Division which doesn’t inspire much confidence to be sure. However, the Orange is killing it at the windows with a 6-1 ATS record versus a 2-4 ATS mark for Virginia Tech.
Let’s also note that Syracuse has lost their last 3 games by identical three-point margins. They play hard and getting them at +3 ½ smacks of terrific value against a middling at best Hokies’ squad.
LSU Tigers vs Ole Miss Rebels
Saturday, October 23, 2021 - 03:30 PM EDT at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Ole Miss, fresh off of a 31-26 win over the Volunteers in Tennessee as 1 ½ point road favorites, opened as 7-point home chalk over LSU but we have seen that number drift to as high as 9 at some shops and it’s time to pounce.
LSU just scored an impressive knockout of Florida, defeating the Gators 49-42 as 12 ½ point home underdogs, and should be sky-high for this SEC tilt with Ole Miss.
The Tigers have won their last 5 meetings against the Rebels including last year’s 53-48 shootout in Baton Rouge. Although the venue has shifted for this game, we still believe getting a whopping nine-point head start with LSU is a very good bang for our betting buck.
Let’s back the Tigers in this spot at this number and if you’re looking for trends to bolster this NCAAF pick, read below:
- Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up win.
- Tigers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 road games.
- Tigers are 13-6 ATS in the last 19 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in the previous game.
- Tigers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog.
- Rebels are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win.
- Rebels are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Rebels are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Saturday, October 23, 2021 - 07:30 PM EDT at Kyle Field
The line on this game opened with the Aggies laying 19 at home to the Gamecocks, but the squares are pounding A&M and the number has drifted to 20 ½ as of this writing.
And while South Carolina +21 would look much more appealing to me, as nobody likes to lose by a hook especially on something as perfectly shaped as three touchdowns, we will take the Gamecocks and the points as they travel to College Station.
We should point out that South Carolina quarterback, Luke Doty, has been ruled out for the season with a foot injury which is another reason why we are seeing the line swell on Texas A&M. However, Doty is not a game-changer by any means and paves the way for senior Zeb Noland to get the nod under center.
Personally, this feels like an upgrade which is another reason to grab the generous head start.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.