If you’re looking to find value in college football, you’re going to want to line shop. At the end of the day, the best online sportsbooks are going to be sharp and know exactly where they want each line. It’s our job to find those discrepancies and wager on the book that is unlike all of the other books.
Here are a couple wagers I found that are around five percent positive when it comes to expected value.
Michigan State Spartans vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Saturday, October 16, 2021 – 12:00 PM EDT at Memorial Stadium
Michigan State is 6-0 on the season and has allowed just 19.3 points per game. While the offense has been tremendous, the defense has been inconsistent, giving up 420.5 yards per game, including over 300 yards passing.
However, Indiana is really no threat on the offensive end. They’re averaging 23.8 points per game and just 343.6 yards of offense per game.
Meanwhile, the Hoosiers defense has been quality, giving up 28.2 points per game but just 351.6 yards per game.
Currently, Indiana quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has 4 touchdown passes, but 7 interceptions. As long as he’s changing field position with his interceptions, that’s going to be a beautiful thing for an under in this game.
Michigan State has an elite pass rush that can force mistakes from Penix Jr. Meanwhile, Indiana’s defense has simply performed better than their offense and has done a very solid job tackling and stopping the run.
For the NCAAF pick, give me the under 49 in this one.
Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Western Michigan Broncos
Saturday, October 16, 2021 - 03:30 PM EDT at Waldo Stadium
Kent State has been impressive in their last two games with wins over Bowling Green and Buffalo, scoring 27 or more points in both of those games.
Meanwhile, Western Michigan is coming off a 45-20 loss to Ball State but has shown how capable they are offensively with a win over Pittsburgh earlier this season.
The fact of the matter is, both of these offenses are way more talented than both of these defenses. Western Michigan has so much playmaking ability around quarterback Kaleb Eleby, who has nine touchdowns and just two interceptions on the year.
On the other hand, Kent State has dominated in the run game with Marquez Cooper leading the way. He’s got 479 yards rushing in six games on 95 attempts along with four touchdowns. Cooper is averaging five yards per carry and has helped lead this Kent State team down the field.
Just like Western Michigan, Kent State has rarely turned the ball over with quarterback Dustin Crum throwing just two interceptions all year.
With two very solid offenses going up against two very poor defenses, this game has “over” written all over its NCAAF odds. Even with Kent State averaging more than four touchdowns a game, they’re still allowing more points per game on defense.
Western Michigan is a team that can beat you in so many ways due to having so many weapons. Once they take a punch, they can punch right back. Neither team will get knocked out. The last team to score will win this game though.
Value Pick: Over 66 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.