College Football Week 6 Last Chance Value Picks

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Quarterback Sam Hartman #10 of the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images/AFP

Each week, there are less and less Top-25 games because more Top-25 teams are playing one another in conference play. You would think with more games and more stats, that oddsmakers would have lines pretty spot on. However, if you shop, you can find some really great value across the board. Every top sportsbook wants to be unique with its own lines. Use that to your advantage and find discrepancies.

West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Baylor Bears 

Saturday, October 09, 2021 – 12:00 PM EDT at McLane Stadium

Baylor lost a hard-fought game to Oklahoma State last week, 24-14. It was Baylor’s first loss of the season, but at least it came against a top-25 ranked opponent in Oklahoma State. It also came on the road and now Baylor will be back home to face a 2-3 West Virginia team. Baylor struggled to run the football against Oklahoma State but they’ve been one of the best running teams in the nation, averaging 240.2 yards per game this season.

The run game has worked thanks to a terrific offensive line. The passing game has worked in part because quarterback Gerry Bohanon has limited turnovers with no interceptions and seven touchdowns. Meanwhile, they’ll face a tough test against West Virginia’s defense that has been much better than you would think with a 2-3 record. The rushing defense for the Mountaineers has been special, holding teams to just 88.4 yards per game on the ground.

They’re also allowing just 315.8 yards per game and 18 points per game. The coverage has been a bit off for West Virginia and if you’re going to beat them, you’ve got to look at beating the secondary, which is the weakest link. If the run game for Baylor can get solid chunks of yardage, the passing game will open up and Baylor will find ways to score against West Virginia. At home, with Baylor being just a 2.5 point favorite, there’s real value here. The Bears are scoring 37 points per game and holding opponents to 17.4 points. Take Baylor for a value play.

NCAAF Pick: Baylor -2.5 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Syracuse Orange

Saturday, October 09, 2021 - 03:30 PM EDT at Carrier Dome

While Wake Forest is ranked 19, they’ve kind of gone under the radar. Wake Forest is 5-0 with one of the best quarterbacks in the nation, Sam Hartman. Hartman has thrown for 11 touchdowns with just two interceptions and has helped Wake Forest score 38.4 points per game while averaging 444.6 yards per game. Syracuse, known for having a terrific defense, allowed 33 to Florida State last week and lost 33-30 in a heartbreaker.

At this point, it’s clear that the Syracuse defense can be beaten, despite some really good performances this season against teams like Rutgers and Liberty. The reality is, Wake Forest has one of the best offenses in the country and has scored 192 points in just five weeks. The other reality is that Syracuse can’t mirror that, no matter how hard they try.

This Syracuse offense isn’t capable of scoring a high amount of points against legitimate teams in the ACC or in the Top-25. Therefore, if you can find Wake Forest against the spread as a favorite of below 6.5 points, I’d lock that in. Wake Forest really doesn’t have any weaknesses on this team.

They’re really good and could end up winning the ACC this season. The defense stepped up big against powerful offenses like Louisville and Virginia and the offense is extremely capable of putting crooked numbers on the board regardless of who they face.

NCAAF Pick: Wake Forest -5.5 (-110) with BetOnline

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.