College Football Week 5 Last Chance Value Picks

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Drew Plitt #9 of the Ball State Cardinals. Scott Taetsch/Getty Images/AFP

With a month of college football under our belt, things are starting to fall into place. Analytics and numbers are starting to make sense and numbers are starting to play out as expected.

Lines are also getting sharper with plenty of line movement throughout the week. However, the lines aren’t nearly as sharp in games that people aren’t really paying attention to.

Here are a couple of games I’ve got an eye on with plenty of value.

Army Black Knights vs. Ball State Cardinals

Saturday, October 02, 2021 – 05:00 PM EDT at Scheumann Stadium

Ball State is currently 1-3 on the season while scoring just 17 points per game. They’re 0-4 against the spread and have allowed 33 points per game on the defensive end. It’s been a disaster for Ball State every which way. The defense is allowing 438 yards per game and the offense can’t even reach 200 yards passing per game.

Quarterback Drew Plitt has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns and has a QBR of 35. Now he’s got to face an Army defense that has allowed just 277.8 yards per game on the defensive end. The Black Knights have dominated in all areas on defense and have an elite group in the secondary that will make any quarterback struggle in college football.

The offense for Army has been electric, scoring 39 points per game with 415 yards per game. They’re rushing for 344.5 yards per game and run a triple-option that will absolutely confuse Ball State. Let’s face it, Ball State can’t even defend a normal offense.

Good luck facing a triple-option offense that is scoring nearly 40 points per game.

I’m seeing Army -9 in the full game against Ball State on the road. Any number below 10 is an amazing value. I’d even bet Army up to 13.5 points if needed. These two teams are completely opposite.

Value Pick: Army -9 (-110) via BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Army -9 (-110)
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Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Purdue

Saturday, October 02, 2021 - 12:00 PM EDT at Ross-Ade Stadium

At this point, it just looks like Minnesota is going to be hot and cold all season long. The Golden Gophers lost to Ohio State in their first game, won a one-possession game against Miami-Ohio, dominated Colorado, and then lost to Bowling Green, 14-10. At this point, it’s obvious that Colorado stinks. So now, Minnesota doesn’t look nearly as good if you take that win away.

On the other hand, Purdue defeated Oregon State, crushed Connecticut, lost to Notre Dame by a couple of scores, and then found a way defensively against Illinois. Neither team has any insane wins on their resume but Purdue might have the better offense at this time. Junior quarterback Jack Plummer has thrown for seven touchdowns and no interceptions through four games with 840 yards passing.

On the other hand, Tanner Morgan, quarterback for Minnesota, has thrown for 540 yards and just three touchdowns with two interceptions. Quarterback play has been better for the Boilermakers and now they’ll be in front of their home crowd as 2.5 point favorites.

Purdue hasn’t been fantastic against the run but Minnesota lost their main guy to an injury. Treyson Potts has taken over and while he’s looked good, he’s not Mohamed Ibrahim.

Purdue should win this handily at home and the spread is currently sitting at -2.5. There’s value on Purdue, where they have the better quarterback and a defense that has been making tackles in the open field with ease.

Value Pick: Purdue -2.5 (-110) via BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Purdue -2.5 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.