College Football Week 13 Picks: Teams on Upset Alert This Weekend

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Desmond Ridder #9 of the Cincinnati Bearcats. Dylan Buell/Getty Images/AFP

It is the last full weekend of college football, fortunately, but it’s rivalry week and that suggests a lot of different things can happen and usually do. While Ohio State and Michigan will dominate the headlines and deservedly so, there will be a load of other contests to go for the Thanksgiving holiday.

We are focusing our attention on two tilts that we are calling for the outright upset. In the other matchup, we are not willing to go that far, but we firmly believe this road favorite will be tested and could be placed in peril if they are not careful. We have worked over the NCAAF odds and here are our selections for college football picks.

Cincinnati Bearcats vs. East Carolina Pirates

Friday, November 26, 2021 – 03:30 PM EST at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium

The Cincinnati team we expected to see for a month finally showed up last week against SMU, mauling the Mustangs 48-14 in a game that was close to how Ohio State manhandled Michigan State. The Bearcats were dialed-in on offense and defense and looked like a Top 4 team in the country.

Here is our question, with a date against Houston for the AAC title next week, what version do you believe we will see this week from Luke Fickell’s club? Well, we do too. Our guess is it will be somewhere between how they played last week and what their attitude was against South Florida when they won 45-28, as 24-point road favorites. East Carolina has won four in a row and is 7-2 SU and ATS since the middle of September.

The Pirates have a nicely balanced offense that comes in 25th nationally and is 18 spots ahead of Cincinnati. ECU is going bowling, but you know they believe this is their moment to make headlines.

Last year they were pounded 55-17 by the Bearcats up north, yet, two years ago in Greenville, the Pirates fell 46-43 at home as 24.5-point underdogs. Is a repeat possible?

NCAAF Pick: East Carolina +14 (-109) at GTbets (visit our GTbets Review)

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Florida State Seminoles vs. Florida Gators

Saturday, November 27, 2021 - 12:00 PM EST at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium

Back in May, Florida gave Dan Mullen a raise and an extension through 2026 and six months later they are tired of him for not winning and are willing to pay him 12 million to go away. In the SEC, like the NHL, head coaches are like high-priced paper towels, disposable.

We are not saying Mullen has done a good job this season or recruited at an elite level, but when you go back to September 18th and Florida almost upset Alabama and Florida State committed six turnovers and fell to Wake Forest. It’s hard to imagine the Seminoles are the more stable football program today.

After beginning 0-4, the Seminoles are 5-2 SU and ATS since, with their only losses in this period to Clemson and N. C. State, which are hardly awful. This series has long favored the visitor and the current run is 7-3 ATS and we’ll grab the Noles and the digits.

NCAAF Pick: Florida State +2.5 (-109) at GTbets

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Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Marshall Thundering Herd

Saturday, November 27, 2021 - 03:30 PM EST at Joan C. Edwards Stadium

Its winner takes all for the East Division of Conference USA in the matchup. Western Kentucky holds a one-game lead over Marshall in the East, but that means nothing if the Hilltoppers don’t come out on top over the Thundering Herd, as they would lose the tiebreaker.

After losing four in a row, Western Kentucky has rattled six straight victories (5-1 ATS), winning by 25.5 points a game. The Hilltoppers passing game is again the best in the county at 430 yards a contest. Where they have gotten better is with a ball-hawking defense that allowed 18.5 PPG on this stretch and generated an astounding 17 turnovers in their last four outings and 22 in all over their prior seven.

Marshall is on a 5-1 SU run of their own, however, the only good team they faced was UAB and they lost to them at home. The Herd is 0-4-1 ATS as host in this encounter and the ‘Toppers are 6-0 ATS as a road underdog of seven points or less.

NCAAF Pick: Western Kentucky +1 (-109) at GTbets

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.