College Football Week 12 Picks: Teams on Upset Alert This Weekend

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Haaziq Daniels #4 of the Air Force Falcons. Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images/AFP

Just two full weeks left in college football’s regular season remain and as expected, Georgia and Alabama are at the top and heads are shaking in Oklahoma from last Saturday. We called two upsets last week, can we do it again?

In reviewing all the betting odds for college football this week in looking for upsets, four games in particular stood. We are leaving one off the list since it is a less prominent affair and instead we will look at a Friday night prime-time matchup, travel to Ohio for an impactful American Conference clash, and end up talking about what could be the first of two battles in the Pac-12.

No matter how you look at it, it will be another fun-filled week for college football picks, so let’s get at it!

Air Force Falcons vs. Nevada Wolf Pack

Friday, November 19, 2021 – 09:00 PM EST at Mackay Stadium

Air Force and Nevada could well have met in the Mountain West Conference title game, but let opportunities get away. The Flyboys put out 619 yards on Utah State, but gave up 628 and fell to the Aggies 49-45. The Wolf Pack dropped a pair of two-point outcomes to Fresno State and San Diego State, which will keep them out of the MWC title tilt.

With both clubs 7-3 and having winnable last games, the winner of this matchup could have a 10-3 campaign. The best online sportsbooks have made Nevada just a two-point home favorite and seeing their number is normally -4 at home, the oddsmakers are telling you the Air Force is the better squad.

We agree with that assessment and though the Falcons No. 4 rating in total defense might be questionable because of the competition, they have held foes to almost touchdown and 65 yards below their season averages.

As the top rushing team in the country at 311 yards a game, they can keep Nevada’s No. 4 pass offense on the sidelines with ball control and wear them out on defense for the outright victory.

NCAAF Pick: Air Force +2 (-108) at YouWager

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SMU Mustangs vs. Cincinnati Bearcats

Saturday, November 20, 2021 - 03:30 PM EST at Nippert Stadium

Cincinnati might be 10-0 and they deserve credit for that. Still, having not covered four in a row and hardly looking impressive, their stature has tumbled.

While some might argue the merits of covering point spreads to be able to reach the college football playoffs, coach Luke Fickell and the Bearcats program understood they needed style points as a non-Power 5 team and they have not accomplished that.

SMU was also unbeaten and lost to Houston on a kickoff return in the final seconds and let that turn into two defeats with an upset setback at Memphis. Back home, the Mustangs got their legs back and pounded Central Florida 55-28 last week.

Cincinnati has the No. 6 scoring defense in the country at 16.2 PPG, but in this streak spread of losers, they’ve permitted 20 PPG (still very good) versus Navy, Tulane, Tulsa, and USF, none of whom compare to SMU’s 41.3 PPG.

With the total at 65, points will be scored and the Mustangs beat the spread and do possibly more damage.

NCAAF Pick: SMU +11.5 (-110) at YouWager (visit our YouWager Review)

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Oregon Ducks vs. Utah Utes

Saturday, November 20, 2021 - 07:30 PM EST at Rice-Eccles Stadium

No matter what outcome of this Pac-12 encounter, Oregon and Utah are well-positioned for a rematch in 13 days to say who is conference champs are. Oregon has more on the line for this skirmish, trying to reach the Final 4. Utah will have the home field edge and that cannot be ignored.

The two teams average just over 35 PPG, making the offenses very close to even. On defense, the Utes permit roughly 20 fewer yards a contest, with Ducks permitting 1.2 PPG less. Again, little differential. What might be the biggest factor is big-game experience.

Quarterback Anthony Brown #13 of the Oregon Ducks. Steph Chambers/Getty Images/AFP

Though Oregon had a few so-so seasons, this is a program over the last 20+ years that expects to play in big games and knows how to win them. That doesn’t mean they do every time, but they know the process to a winning mentality.

Utah is close to that threshold, however, to reach it they have to win this contest and again in about two weeks. Outside of a fluky loss at Stanford in OT, the Beavers just understand what it takes to win.

NCAAF Pick: Oregon +3 (-110) at YouWager

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.