College Football Week 12 Last Chance Value Picks

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The Boston College Eagles bench reacts to a touchdown. Maddie Malhotra/Getty Images/AFP

Each week we take one final look at the college football odds to see where the lines have moved from the openers to the near closers in search of the best value on the board. This week we have three noontime games so make sure to get down early on these college football picks.

Iowa State Cyclones vs Oklahoma Sooners 

Saturday, November 20, 2021 – 12:00 PM EST at Memorial Stadium

The line has tumbled a full three points since the opener of Oklahoma -6 ½ to where it stands as of this writing at -3 ½, and that’s the kind of value we’ll happily take. The Sooners have put up huge numbers offensively and up until last week were undefeated. But Baylor proved to be their undoing as the Oklahoma offense got stuck in the mud and the Bears drew away to a 27-14 win as four-point home dogs.

The key to this game will be whether or not the Oklahoma offense is better than a stout Iowa State defense. The Sooners are ranked 19th in total yardage (456 YPG) and No. 8 in points scored (40 PPG) while the Cyclones defense checks in at No. 10 in total yards allowed (307 YPG) and No. 24 in points allowed (20.5 PPG).

But Oklahoma is undefeated at home while Iowa State is 2-3 on the road. This will be a big spot for the Sooners to redeem themselves and the value we are now getting makes this home favorite worthy of a wager.

NCAAF Pick: Oklahoma -3 ½ (-108) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Florida State Seminoles vs. Boston College Eagles

Saturday, November 20, 2021 - 12:00 PM EST at Alumni Stadium

Let’s turn our attention to ACC action where the line drop here is small but significant. The BC Eagles have fallen from -3 to -2 home chalk and anytime we can get off of, onto, or through the magical number three then it’s always welcome at this address.

Jaelen Gill #1 of the Boston College Eagles. Maddie Malhotra/Getty Images/AFP

Boston College is 3-1 straight up and against the spread, while Florida State is 1-2 straight up and ATS on the road this season. The key to victory for the Eagles is their stellar pass defense, ranked third in the nation, allowing just 159.5 yards per contest, while FSU’s aerial attack resembles more of a mild affront, ranked 103rd and averaging only 195.5 yards per contest. If you can’t pass, you can’t win and we see the Eagles easily covering in this spot.

NCAAF Pick: Boston College -2 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Clemson Tigers

Saturday, November 20, 2021 - 12:00 PM EST at Memorial Stadium

At this point the Clemson Tigers are living off of their previous illustrious reputation, but make no mistake, the only thing this season’s edition has in common with their championship predecessors is the uniform. Nevertheless, the public can’t get enough of a household name and the oddsmakers know this all too well. That goes a long way towards explaining why the Tigers are 7-3 straight up but a dismal 2-8 against the number. Joe Q. Public bets Clemson because he thinks he knows Clemson.

And while we must acknowledge that the Tigers are 5-0 straight up at home this season they are 1-4 ATS and will be taking on the No. 13 team in the nation when Wake Forest comes knocking on Saturday. The Demon Deacons are a wagon on offense, totaling nearly 500 combined yards per game and No. 2 in the nation in points scored, averaging 44.7 points per game.

Clemson is all about defense this season but their offense exited the moment Trevor Lawrence did. They will be able to stymie the Deacons for a bit but ultimately the Wake offense will wear them down, as defenses eventually run out of gas when they’re on the field too long and asked to do too much.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons fans cheer. Grant Halverson/Getty Images/AFP

An outright win by Wake Forest wouldn’t surprise me but now that the line has drifted from +3 to +4 ½ it is time to stop thinking about it and pounce on that inflated line.

NCAAF Pick: Wake Forest +4 ½ (-110) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.