College Football Week 11 Picks: Teams on Upset Alert This Weekend

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Quarterback Caleb Williams #13 of the Oklahoma Sooners. Brian Bahr/Getty Images/AFP

We warned you last week that things would start getting sideways in college football once November arrived. Expect more fireworks this week.

Wake Forest and Michigan State left the ranks of the unbeaten. Alabama, Cincinnati, Ohio State, and Iowa were all severely tested and Baylor lost before their big matchup with Oklahoma. That’s what happens annually when the leaves start falling off the trees after turning colors and the world has gone spiced-pumpkin goofy.

This week after looking over the college football odds at the top-rated sportsbooks, I have identified three games that could well have upset potential, and let us explain why we think so.

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Baylor Bears

Saturday, November 13, 2021 – 12:00 PM EST at McLane Stadium

Though Baylor head coach Dave Aranda would never admit to it, his team was not mentally prepared to play at TCU. The Bears allowed a season-high 30 points and 468 yards passing to the Horned Frogs who came into that matchup ranked in the ’50s nationally in pass yards.

Baylor is not dead yet to still reach the Big 12 title tilt, because, with a victory in Waco Saturday, they would have the tie-breaker on both Oklahoma schools and they still have to face each other.

The Bears’ secondary has holes without a steady pass rush and Oklahoma will look to exploit that. Yet, for all the poise and skill Sooners quarterback Caleb Williams has shown, he has not faced a hostile Big 12 road crowd and you know Baylor fans will bring it.

Besides, it is not like the Oklahoma pass defense is making the highlight shows, ranked 116th in the country (Baylor is 81st), and Bears QB Gerry Bohanon is a good down-the-field thrower. With Baylor 6-0 ATS  vs. teams scoring 37 or more points a game since 2019, they turn this into a three-point outcome either way.

NCAAF Pick: Baylor +5.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns vs. Troy Trojans

Saturday, November 13, 2021 - 03:30 PM EST at Veterans Memorial Stadium

The fact that Louisiana is 8-1 at this juncture of the year is not a shocker, as this program has high expectations coming in. What has been surprising is their 3-6 ATS record, which was not expected. Coach Billy Napier and his staff have to push the emotions button on this veteran team, who seldom brings the energy for four quarters on game days.

Having won the SBC West Division last week narrowly over Georgia State, the Ragin’ Cajuns are playing for pride and they have not shown much of that despite their record. Troy is 5-4 SU and ATS and needs one more win to go bowling and this would be a notch on their belt with a victory.

The Trojans know they can compete playing at home and they recently fell by only seven at Coastal Carolina as 17-point underdogs. If Troy continues to generate turnovers, this might be another unexpected upset.

NCAAF Pick: Troy +7 (-113) at Heritage Sports

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UAB Blazers vs. Marshall Thundering Herd 

Saturday, November 13, 2021 - 03:30 PM EST at Joan C. Edwards Stadium

This is a contest that neither of these Conference USA clubs can afford to lose. UAB has a contest at undefeated UTSA next week, but if they lose this week, the Blazers are playing for pride being two games back in the standings after an unforgivable home loss to Rice three weeks ago.

Though a loss technically would not knock Marshall out from winning the East Division, they would have to match points with a steamy Western Kentucky offense that is No. 1 in pass offense and 7th in points scored at 41.3 PPG.

This isn’t the best UAB squad under Bill Clark, but he’s developed a winning culture. Marshall has put together four consecutive wins after three straight losses but the weakness of the Herd is their overaggressiveness, which can lead to turnovers and the Blazers are used to converting those into points.

Look for UAB to reach 30-14 ATS against conference opponents on the road at Marshall.

NCAAF Pick: UAB +5 (-108) at Heritage Sports

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.